Crude oil trading outlook: futures gain on OPEC comments, IEA Middle East warning

West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude rose on Tuesday after OPEC officials signaled optimism that the market will sustain its recent rebound, while the IEA warned of supply risks stemming from Islamic State’s rise in the Middle East.
US crude for delivery in April rose $0.22 to $53.89 per barrel by 8:02 GMT from Friday’s close at $53.67. Floor trading was suspended on Monday due to the Presidents’ Day holiday and transactions will be booked today for settlement purposes.
Meanwhile on the ICE, Brent for settlement in the same month traded 0.52% higher at $61.72 a barrel, having shifted between $62.15 and $61.53 during the day. The contract slid 0.20% on Monday to $61.40 a barrel. Brent traded at a premium of $7.83 to its US counterpart, close to Friday’s settlement at $7.85.
Mohammed bin Saleh Al Sada, Qatar’s Energy Minister, said yesterday that the oil market’s trend has changed over the past few weeks and there is a sense of optimism.
Prices rebounded from January’s six-year lows following a continued drop in the number of active US oil rigs. Drillers in the US idled 84 rigs last week, bringing the total count to 1 056, the fewest since August 2011. Their number has fallen by 519, or 33%, over the past ten weeks.
The global supply overhang is smaller than the previously estimated 1.8 million barrels per day, said Ali Al-Omair of Kuwait, OPEC’s third-biggest crude producer.

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Gold prices dip in early Asia with Greece talks in focus, U.S. shut

Gold prices eased mildly on Monday in early Asia with Greece talks in focus later in the day and U.S. markets shut.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for April delivery eased 0.10% to $1,228.30 a troy ounce.
Elsewhere on the Comex, silver futures for March delivery fell 0.10% at $17.315 a troy ounce.
Meanwhile, copper for March delivery rose 0.12% at $2.606 a pound.
Last week, gold edged higher on Friday, as a broadly weaker U.S. dollar and ongoing uncertainty over developments in Greece boosted the appeal of the precious metal.
The drop in the dollar came after data on Friday showed that U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly deteriorated in February.
The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 93.6, down from January’s final reading of 98.1. Economists had forecast an unchanged figure.

The report came a day after data showing that U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.8% last month after dropping 0.9% in December, indicating that consumer spending remained sluggish at the start of the year.
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Forex - Yen gains despite weaker than expected Q4 GDP

The Japanese yen held stronger on Monday in Asia despite weaker than expected economic growth last quarter.
Japan's fourth quarter economic growth clocked in at a gain of 0.6%, well below the quarter-on-quarter gain of 0.9% expected.
Earlier, New Zealand reported retail sales rose 1.7% quarter-on-quarter, beating an expectation of a 1.3% gain.

NZD/USD traded at 0.7480, up 0.34%, while USD/JPY changed hands at 118.68, down 0.05%. AUD/USD traded at 0.7770, up 0.16%.
Markets in the U.S. are closed for the Presidents Day holiday.
Last week, the dollar slid against the yen on Friday after weak data on U.S. consumer sentiment coming on the heels of other soft economic reports saw investors reassess expectations for a mid-year rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
The drop in the dollar came after data on Friday showed that U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly deteriorated in February.
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Sensex gains 134 points on value buying, positive global markets

Mumbai: The benchmark BSE Sensex rose over 134 points in early trade today on value-buying by investors in selective stocks amidst optimism over the upcoming Budget.
The 30-share index gained 134.85 points, or 0.48 per cent, to 28,490.47 with capital goods, consumer durables, banking, healthcare, power, auto and metal sector stocks, leading the rise.
The index had gained 128.23 points in the previous session.
Also, the National Stock Exchange index Nifty reclaimed the 8,600-mark by rising 47.10 points, 0.55 per cent, to 8,612.65.
Brokers said value-based buying by investors as select shares turned attractive after recent losses and optimism over the upcoming Budget, influenced trading sentiments here.

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Spreadsheets in Commodity Trading

A new study from Commodity Technology Advisory LLC (ComTech) finds that spreadsheets continue to be a pervasive tool used in commodity trading firms, despite their well-known shortcomings and high risk profile. This new research report sought to quantify the use and risk of spreadsheets in commodity trading, and the results indicate that more than 90% of the respondents to the research survey indicated they continue to utilize spreadsheets for some portion of their trading activities.
“Despite the growing maturity of commercially available Commodity Trading and Risk Management software (CTRM) solutions, an increasingly active regulatory business environment and, the alarming number of horror stories involving spreadsheets in historical losses, mistakes and fraud, spreadsheets seem difficult to eliminate,” said Dr. Gary M. Vasey, Managing Partner, ComTech. “This research, prompted by the current round of regulation and controls, looks at the use of spreadsheets in commodity trading to discover how widespread and pervasive they are and why.”

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550 delegates sign up for Islamic finance event in Bahrain

More than 550 delegates from over 80 countries have registered for a pioneering Islamic finance event to take place in Bahrain next month.
The inaugural Global Islamic Investment Gateway will take place on March 2 and 3 at the Gulf Hotel.
The event is aimed at generating business for the private equity and investment sector in high growth Islamic countries, said a statement.
More than half the delegates are C-suite level executives attracted by the format of the event which is designed to link global investors with actual opportunities to invest, it said.
The keynote speakers include Kamal bin Ahmed Mohamed, Minister of Transportation and Telecommunications and acting chief executive officer of the Bahrain Economic Development Board, one of the event sponsors.   
“We are delighted with the exceptional response from delegates from all over the world. It shows just how significant the opportunities for Islamic investment business are in the GCC and beyond,” said Mohamed.
“We hope and expect the Global Islamic Investment Gateway to become firmly established in the business calendar and we are honoured that this pioneering event is being hosted here in the Kingdom of Bahrain,” he said.
Shaikh Ahmed Bin Mohammed Al Khalifa, Bahrain’s Minister of Finance and Minister in Charge of Oil and Gas Affairs will also address the conference, said the statement.
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Forex - Aussie weaker ahead of HSBC China PMI, weak official figure

The Australian dollar eased in early trade in Asia on Monday ahead of data on China's manufacturing sector expected to confirm a soft phase. AUD/USD traded at 0.7760, down, 0.07%, while USD/JPY changed hands at 117.08, down 0.35%. EUR/USD traded at 1.1311, up 0.22%.

In China, the HSBC January manufacturing PMI us due at 0945 local time with a reading of 49.8 expected, the same as December. Japan also reports its manufacturing PMI for January with 52.1 expected.

At the weekend, China said January CFLP manufacturing PMI fell to 49.8 from 50.1 in December, placing it in contraction even as the timing of the Chinese
New Year holiday this year relative to last should have boosted the January reading.

Last week, the U.S. dollar was mostly lower against its major counterparts on Friday, as investors reacted to data showing the U.S. economy grew less than expected in the fourth quarter.
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Budget, reforms will boost infra sector outlook

The market is not expecting anything great from the December quarter earnings, says Sandeep Nanda, chief investment officer of Bharti AXA Life Insurance. In an interview with Bijoy Sankar Saikia, Nanda said he expects earnings upgrade cycle for India Inc to begin soon. Excerpts:

After the Greece election verdict, does eurozone look scary from the market’s point of view? Will it undo the euphoria that the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing measures created in the markets globally?

The eurozone is likely to be a source of volatility for global equity markets this year. We have already seen a glimpse of that recently. The situation in Greece is evolving and it’ still early to say which way it would go.

The ECB’s quantitative easing programme should boost the global liquidity pool chasing growth markets like India, and thus, it is a big positive for the Indian market.

n The Indian stock market bounced on the optimism generated by the Indo-US bonhomie. How much of this symbolism will actually help in value creation for investors and how?

It should lead to more and deeper partnerships among companies on both sides and would boost growth for some companies. For example, defence and nuclear energy are two sectors where many Indian companies can benefit through manufacturing tieups, technology transfer as well as joint ventures. We expect a lot more deals to be signed in the defence sector over the coming months.
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Crude oil rallies over 1% but supply glut worries still weigh

Crude oil futures rallied over 1% on Friday, on the back of a weaker dollar but the commodity still remained within close distance of a nearly six-year low as ongoing concerns over a glut in global supplies continued to weigh.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, U.S. crude oil for delivery in March traded $0.56 or 1.26% higher to $45.10 a barrel during European early afternoon trade.
Prices rose $0.08 or 0.18% on Thursday to settle at $44.53.
Futures were likely to find support at $43.58, Thursday's low and a nearly six-year low and resistance at $46.55, the high from January 27.
Oil prices have fallen nearly 60% since June as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries resisted calls to cut output, while the U.S. pumped at the fastest pace in more than three decades, creating a glut in global supplies.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, slipped 0.27% to 94.71, moving away from last Friday's more than 11-year highs of 95.77.
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Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD) Exchange Rate Forecast: German Retail Sales Jump, Canadian GDP, Eurozone CPI, Unemployment Rate Ahead

The Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD) exchange rate recorded gains early in Friday’s European session after German Retail Sales reached higher than forecast levels.
Annual Retail Sales were pulled out of the -1.0% contraction to +4.0%. Economists had expected a smaller 3.6%
Earlier… The Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD) exchange rate recorded gains in the second half of Thursday’s European trading after mixed German data and oil price declines.

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Wall Street falls 1 percent on earnings; Apple rallies late

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks closed more than 1 percent lower on Tuesday as disappointing results from a number of bellwether companies pointed to weakening conditions, while an unexpected decline in durable goods orders also weighed on sentiment.
The day's losses were broad, with nine of the 10 primary S&P 500 sectors lower on the day, though tech <.SPLRCT> was the biggest drag by far. The group lost 3.3 percent in its biggest one-day drop since November 2011, in the wake of results from industry bellwether Microsoft. Industrial shares fell, led by Caterpillar.
The two names were the biggest decliners on the Dow, but fellow components Procter & Gable (N:PG) and DuPont Co (N:DD) also tumbled.
Microsoft (O:MSFT) fell 9.3 percent to $42.66 a day after the main engine of its historic earnings power - selling Windows and Office to big businesses - showed signs of waning.
Heavy machinery marker Caterpillar (N:CAT) gave an outlook below expectations, warning the recent plunge in oil prices would hurt its energy equipment business. Shares dropped 7.2 percent to $79.85.
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Gold prices slightly weaker in Asia with focus on Fed meeting

Gold prices eased on Wednesday with investors looking ahead to comments from the Federal Reserve on the prospects for a rate hike this year.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for April delivery eased 0.05% to trade at $1,292.30 a troy ounce.

Overnight, gold erased losses to hit the highest levels of the session on Tuesday, after data showed that U.S. durable goods orders fell unexpectedly in December, fuelling concerns over the strength of the economy.

Prices fell by as much as $7.10 earlier to hit a daily low of $1,273.30, the weakest level since January 19.

Also on the Comex, silver futures for March delivery fell 0.03% at $18.078 a troy ounce.

In a report, the U.S. Commerce Department said that total durable goods orders, which include transportation items, fell by 3.4% last month, compared to expectations for a gain of 0.5%.
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Apple CFO Sees Sales Growth as Hedges Ease Currency Swings

Apple Inc., which has already taken its most aggressive steps in years to blunt the effects of currency swings on revenue, said sales will keep growing this quarter even with the strengthening U.S. dollar.
“We’re guiding to a strong March quarter with revenue up between 14 and 20 percent and that’s in spite of the fact that you’ve heard from many U.S. companies these days that foreign exchange has become a challenge,” Chief Financial Officer Luca Maestri said Tuesday in an interview.
The dollar’s surge is reducing earnings at U.S. companies from Procter & Gamble Co. to Pfizer Inc. and DuPont Co. that make a large portion of their sales abroad. Apple, which got more than half its revenue in the most recent fiscal year from outside the U.S., has benefited from hedging and raised prices on iPhones in Russia and mobile software applications from Canada to Europe. The higher local prices help compensate when the revenue is converted back into dollars.

Apple’s shares rose in extended trading after it reported profit and revenue that exceeded analysts’ average estimates for the quarter ended Dec. 27, fueled by a 46 percent surge in iPhone shipments to 74.5 million units.
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Banks asked to increase private sector lending

KARACHI: Governor State Bank Ashraf Mahmood Wathra has stressed upon the banks to focus on private sector lending and deposit mobilization.
In this context he said that the average spread of all banks continue to remain high and should be reasonably rationalized. “SBP shall review the position by the end of June 2015 and may take regulatory measures to lower the spread,” he added.
He was addressing a meeting of Presidents/CEOs of all commercial Banks and DFIs at SBP Head office in Karachi on Monday. The Governor took stock of operational activities and performance and issued important directives to enhance the efficiency of banks.
Discussing the condition of Islamic Banks and its profitability, Governor highlighted that Islamic banks should reward their customers appropriately in line with their surging profits. “Banks were advised to come up with their own solutions or the SBP will apply Shariah compliant measures to address the issue,” he instructed.
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Apple Inc. Pay Now Accepted By Western Union

Apple expands its mobile payment service in efforts to give customers more options and reach a key demographic.

Western Union is the latest company to work with ApplePay to provide bill pay and money transferring services. The company’s flagship locations and drugstore kiosks will soon support money transfers via the service. One Duane Reade location in New York City already offers support.

Apple Pay makes transferring money simple

The new support from Western Union means people can use their iPhones to fund money transfers or pay bills. Sending money transactions still requires a registered debit or credit card at a participating bank to be loaded into Passbook. The new contact-less payment terminals allow iPhone 6 / iPhone 6 Plus users to hold their smartphone near the reader and pay using their fingerprint from the Touch ID.
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China's Li says to create 10 million jobs in 2015: China Daily

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China's Premier Li Keqiang pledged to create at least 10 million new jobs in 2015, the state run China Daily newspaper said on Tuesday, despite economic growth that slowed to its weakest pace in nearly a quarter of a century last year.
Beijing views healthy employment levels as a top policy priority and an important condition for social stability. Last year the country created around 13 million jobs.
"Stress tests show the possibility of a large amount of unemployment, which could lead to social instability if the economy cools down too fast," Li said at a meeting with economic experts and business leaders on Monday, the newspaper said.
China's economy grew at its slowest pace in 24 years in 2014 as property prices cooled and companies and local governments struggled under heavy debt burdens, pressuring Beijing to take aggressive steps to avoid a sharper downturn.
A weakening jobs market would raise alarm bells for the government as it ratchets up efforts, including an interest rate cut towards the end of last year, to support a slowing economy.
China targeted a registered urban unemployment rate below 4.6 percent last year, although many economists believe the real number may be higher given the difficulty of tracking the country's army of migrant workers.
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Toyota to move to merit-based pay for factory workers: Nikkei

Toyota Motor Corp (T:7203) will change the way it pays factory workers, focusing on their performance rather than their seniority, the Nikkei reported on Monday.
Toyota's new arrangement, designed to attract young talent, will apply to about 40,000 employees, or about 60 percent of its workers, aged between 18 and 65, according to the Nikkei. (http://s.nikkei.com/1EMRveN)
The automaker has unveiled the proposal to its labor union and is hopeful of rolling it out next January, the Nikkei said.
Employees will be evaluated twice a year, with wages adjusted every six months, the Nikkei reported.
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Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) Exchange Rate Rallies from 11-Year Low, Syriza Win Deemed No Threat to Eurozone

The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate firmed from its lowest level in 11-years on Monday as economist speculate that Syriza’s Greek election victory would not be a threat to the wider Eurozone.

The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate hit a session high of 1.126

Hopes that a compromise will be reached between Greece’s new Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and the Troika over austerity and bailout terms led to the Euro shaking off earlier losses and rally against the majority of its most traded peers.
The Troika of lenders that bailed out Greece includes the European Union (EU), European Central Bank (ECB), and International Monetary Fund (IMF) – imposed big budgetary cuts and restructuring in return for the money. The austerity messages imposed on the nation led to unemployment soaring to more than 25%.
‘The new Greek government will be ready to co-operate and negotiate for the first time with our peers a just, mutually beneficial and viable solution. The troika for Greece is the thing of the past,’ Mr Tsipras said.
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Euro to Australian Dollar (EUR/AUD) Exchange Rate Forecast to Trend within Tight Range on Potential Currency War

The Euro to Australian Dollar (EUR/AUD) exchange rate edged is trending within a narrow range on Friday morning.
After the European Central Bank opted to loosen monetary policy in order to combat deflation in the Eurozone, the shared currency slumped across the board. Friday has seen the decline extended versus many of its major peers.
In the initial aftermath of the ECB decision, the ‘Aussie’ (AUD) gained thanks to demand for gold amidst risk-averse trading. However, anxieties that the policy easing from Canada and Europe will provoke a devaluation battle have amplified cautious trade. The Reserve Bank of Australia is thought to be the most likely candidate to follow the easing trend at their next policy meeting.
The Euro to Australian Dollar (EUR/AUD) exchange rate is currently trending in the region of 1.4164.
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