Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD) Exchange Rate Forecast to Trend within Narrow Rangeon Oil Prices

The Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD) exchange rate was trending within a limited range on Wednesday afternoon. 

As tensions between Greece and the Eurogroup mount, the shared currency softened versus the majority of its most traded currency rivals. Additional declination is as a result of less-than-impressive Eurozone construction output.
The Canadian Dollar, meanwhile, softened versus nearly all of its major peers thanks to declination in the crude market. With demand cooling and supply rising, prices are expected to drop below $50 a barrel again.
The Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD) exchange rate is currently trending in the region of 1.4128.

Euro (EUR) Exchange Rate Softens on Grexit Potential

The common currency softened on Wednesday after Tuesday’s Eurogroup meeting failed to find a utilitarian resolution to Greece’s debt crisis. Fears that they will be unable to agree on a compromise has seen trader confidence cool with regards to Euro investment.
‘If we want to avoid going into unknown territory, the only way is to have some time and some tranquility,’ French Finance Minister Michel Sapin told reporters in Brussels Tuesday. ‘That means the prolongation of the program. It’s the only legal tool available.’

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Free Custom Pivot Point Indicator - Receive Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicator when you subscribe to our Weekly Newsletter AUDUSD: Forex Technical Analysis February 17, 2015

We would like to draw your attention to AUD/USD currency pair on the H4 chart. US financial markets were closed yesterday in observance of Presidents’ Day. Today the trading is performed on a regular basis, but there is no special US macroeconomic statistics released today. Monetary policy meeting minutes were published early this morning by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). We deem that no significant information was announced; anyway this was precisely what has pushed the Aussie higher. According to previous surveys, more than 60% of investors expected the RBA to cut again the rate to 2% at the next meeting scheduled on the third of March. In our opinion, it is now difficult to state certainly whether it happens or not. Especially that the most important Australian economic data will be released only on the second of March, just before the RBA meeting, and before that less significant statistics will be published. The lower the probability of a rate cut, the more chances has the Australian dollar to strengthen.

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Forex Market: EUR/GBP daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/GBP within the range of 0.7374-0.7429. The pair closed at 0.7390, down 0.14% on a daily basis, which marked a third consecutive daily loss.
At 7:16 GMT today EUR/GBP was up 0.03% for the day to trade at 0.7392. The pair touched a daily high at 0.7395 during early Asian trade.

Fundamentals

Euro area

Economic Sentiment by the ZEW

The gauge of economic sentiment in Germany probably improved to 55.0 in February, according to the median forecast by experts, from 48.4 in January. If so, this would be the highest index reading since February 2014, when it was reported at 55.7.
In October last year the index entered into negative territory for the first time since November 2012, slipping to -3.6.
The ZEW (Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung) economic expectations index is published on a monthly basis. The study encompasses up to 350 financial and economic analysts. The indicator reflects the difference between the share of analysts, that are optimistic and those, that are pessimistic about the expected economic development in Germany over the next six months. A positive value indicates that the proportion of optimists is larger than that of pessimists. A ZEW reading of -100 suggests that all analysts are pessimistic about the current developments and expect economic conditions to deteriorate. A ZEW reading of 100 implies that all analysts are optimistic about the current situation and expect conditions to improve. A ZEW reading of 0 indicates neutrality.

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The Let’s Inform You Seminar with a free lunch is back, register now!

HE famous Let’s Inform You (Free Lunch) Seminar is back in February, this time at The Manor House, Paredon, Pinoso 03650 on Tuesday February, 17 2015 - noon start.
Over recent months experts from four local companies have answered well over 900 questions from the people who have attended seminars on the Costa Blanca. Feedback has been very positive from this fantastic and really great opportunity.
How wonderful it is to be able to ask the experts in various fields about how things work in Spain.
Once again the highly respected UK and Spanish companies based on the Costa Blanca are inviting all British and European nationals, spending time or living in Spain, to a relaxed seminar to answer all the questions they have regarding life in Spain.

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Market pulled down by two major banks

The share market is lower as Commonwealth Bank lost value after paying a dividend and ANZ's trading update disappointing investors.
Commonwealth Bank was down about 2.5 per cent after paying its half year dividend to shareholders, which typically results in a fall in share price.
"It's paying out cash to shareholders, so that's taking money out of the market," CommSec market analyst Juliana Roadley said.
ANZ's quarterly update, which showed another rise in cash profit but a fall in the profitability of its lending, was also weighing on investor's minds, she said.
"The result wasn't that bad, but one thing that we have seen from most of the banks that have reported so far is a concern about their net interest margins," Ms Roadley said
"When you look at the weighting of those two large stocks in the banking sector being down, that's pulling the index into the red at the moment."
Commonwealth Bank had dropped $2.67 to $90.97, ANZ was down 81 cents, or 2.3 per cent, at $35.06, while National Australia Bank was up 23 cents at $37.73 and Westpac was 18 cents higher at $37.83.
In the resources sector, Fortescue Metals had gained one cent to $2.69 despite cutting its dividend after an 81 per cent fall in half year profit.


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The Danger of Waiting for a Market Crash Before You Invest

If you, like most investors, like to scoop up bargains in the stock market, you’d probably prefer to wait for the market to crash before investing.
But here’s the thing – that wait for a substantial crash (say a drop of 20% or more), can be harmful to your portfolio at times.
Let’s assume for instance that you were interested in vehicle inspection outfit Vicom Limited (SGX: V01) and supermarket retailer Dairy Farm International Holdings Ltd (SGX: D01) at the start of 2006, when the duo had share prices of S$0.93 and US$3.62 respectively.
If you had a crystal ball back then and foresaw the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-09 and the 67% collapse from peak-to-trough for the Straits Times Index (SGX: ^STI) during the crisis, it’s very likely that you would have held off buying Vicom and Dairy Farm until after the crash had arrived.
But here’s the thing, Vicom had bottomed-out at around S$1.40 per share during the crisis in October 2008 while Dairy Farm did so in December the same year at a share price of US$3.90. Even at their lowest points in one of the worst economic and stock market crashes the world had seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s, both shares had higher prices than at the start of 2006.
The experience of Vicom and Dairy Farm, while admittedly being cherry-picked examples, serves to bring home the point that it does not always make sense to not invest because you’re worried about a crash.

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UPDATE 1-Russian rouble helped by oil, but Ukraine doubts weigh

The Russian rouble rose on Tuesday, supported by a rally in crude prices and political efforts to make a ceasefire hold in eastern Ukraine, but gains were capped by uncertainty about the ceasefire's fate.
At 0800 GMT, the rouble was up 0.4 percent against the dollar to 62.92 and 0.5 percent to 71.45 versus the euro.
Prices for oil, Russia's chief export, extended their rally, with Brent crude climbing beyond $62 a barrel before falling back, still up 0.3 percent on the day to $61.6.
Some investors were also encouraged by more talks between the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France to ensure the ceasefire deal agreed last week holds.
"The rise in the oil price and negotiations about the ceasefire are negating the 'Greek factor'," BCS analyst Mark Bradford said in a morning note, referring to the lack of agreement on Greece's debts on Monday, which is weighing on global markets.
Russian stock indexes were mixed on Tuesday, however, and little changed overall. The dollar-based RTS index was up 0.4 percent to 901 while the rouble-based MICEX was down 0.2 percent to 1,796.
Veles Capital analyst Alexander Kostyukov said in a note that "the geopolitical factor remains the most significant indicator for the Russian stock market on Tuesday".
Despite the continuation of high-level peace talks, the fate of the latest ceasefire in Ukraine is uncertain, with pro-Russian rebels publicly disavowing it around the town of Debaltseve, the focus of recent fighting.

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Why households stay away from the stock market

Over the last three years the Indian stock market has seen a near persistent bull run. Between November 23, 2011 and November 28, 2014, the closing value of the Sensex rose by 280 per cent, or an average of more than 90 per cent a year. That signals the kind of yield that the market would have generated even for those who had a portfolio that replicated trends in the 30-stock Sensex.

Interestingly, this was a time when households were cutting back on their financial savings with the ratio of gross financial savings of households to GDP falling from 15.1 per cent in 2009-10 to 10.3 per cent in 2012-13.

That retreat has affected household exposure to stock markets as well, one consequence of which is the extremely poor performance of the primary market and the virtual absence of IPOs from all but the largest of firms. Households in India (as elsewhere) are major contributors to the nation’s savings. Based on the National Accounts series with 2004-05 as base, the share of household savings in gross financial savings of the nation as a whole fell from 72.7 per cent in 2004-05 to 60.9 per cent in 2007-08, then rose to 74.7 per cent in 2009-10 and stood in 2012-13 at 72.7 per cent (the same level recorded in 2004-05). Thus, though volatile, the share of household savings in aggregate savings has mostly remained in the 70 to 75 per cent range.

Not so robust

The National Accounts statistics compute households’ savings as the sum total of household financial savings and the savings of households in physical assets. As direct capital formation estimates from the household sector are not available, the value of household savings in physical assets is computed as a residual, by deducting independently estimated figures of capital formation in the public and private corporate sectors from an estimate of capital formation for the economy as a whole generated through a commodity flow approach.

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Forex - Euro weakens on impasse in Greece talks, Aussie up after minutes

The euro weakened further on Tuesday as talks between Greece and euro zone finance ministers reached an impasse, setting the stage for the current bailout agreement to lapse at the end of the month.

EUR/USD traded at 1.1334, down 0.18%. AUD/USD traded at 0.7784, up 0.14%, after the release of the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's most recent board meeting showed concern over the pace of growth and cut the cash rate 25 basis points to a record low 2.25%.
"In deciding the timing of such a change members assessed arguments for acting at this meeting or at the following meeting." They preferred a February move because it "offered the opportunity of early additional communication in the forthcoming Statement of Monetary Policy," the RBA said. That Feb. 9 statement contained revised forecasts and detailed commentary and came three days after the cut.

USD/JPY traded at 118.36, down 0.11%.
Talks between Greece and euro zone finance ministers over the country's debt broke down on Monday when Athens rejected a proposal to request a six-month extension of its international bailout as "unacceptable".
The unexpectedly rapid collapse raised doubts about Greece's future in the single currency area after a new leftist-led government vowed to scrap the 240 billion euro bailout, reverse austerity policies and end cooperation with EU/IMF inspectors.
Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who chaired the meeting, said Athens had until Friday to request an extension, otherwise the bailout would expire at the end of the month.
Greece’s current €240 billion bailout is due to expire on February 28 and the new Greek government does not want it extended, fuelling fears over a conflict with its creditors which could trigger the country’s exit from the euro zone.
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Forex Market: EUR/GBP daily trading forecast

Friday’s trade saw EUR/GBP within the range of 0.7388-0.7436. The pair closed at 0.7393, losing 0.26% on a daily basis and extending losses from Thursday.
At 7:38 GMT today EUR/GBP was up 0.01% for the day to trade at 0.7394. The pair touched a daily high at 0.7405 at 2:40 GMT.

Fundamentals

Euro area

Eurogroup Meeting

Finance Ministers of Euro area Member States are to hold another meeting in Brussels today, with its focus being the Greek debt situation. Higher market volatility may be seen after the official decision is announced.
“We’re looking at difficult negotiations on Monday,” Greek Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras, said in a weekend interview with German Stern magazine. “Nevertheless, I’m full of confidence.”
Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said that his country and technical delegations from the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund have already reached an agreement on many issues, the Kathimerini newspaper reported on Saturday. However, there was still uncertainty whether a final agreement will be struck today.

German Buba Monthly Report

At 11:00 GMT Deutsche Bundesbank is to release its Buba Monthly Report, which contains relevant articles, speeches, statistical tables, and provides detailed analysis on current and future economic conditions from the bank’s point of view.
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Euro to Australian Dollar (EUR/AUD) Exchange Rate Forecast to Edge Higher on Eurozone Trade Surplus

The Euro to Australian Dollar (EUR/AUD) exchange rate edged higher by around 0.25% on Monday.

As traders await the Eurogroup meeting, which will see Eurozone officials attempt to find a utilitarian solution to the Greek debt crisis, the shared currency gained versus many of its major peers. This suggests that many are optimistic that the meeting will see a positive conclusion, although most are probably expecting relative inaction. Eurozone trade balance data printed positively, however, which has aided the common currency uptrend.
The Australian Dollar, meanwhile, is generally trending higher versus most of its major peers in response to climbing oil prices. With risk appetite improved, the high-yielding potential of the ‘Aussie’ (AUD) supported an appreciation.
The Euro to Australian Dollar (EUR/AUD) exchange rate is currently trending in the region of 1.4674.

Euro (EUR) Exchange Rate Strengthens ahead of Eurogroup Meeting

As explained above, with many analysts expecting little development in today’s Eurogroup meeting the shared currency strengthened. ‘We’re looking at difficult negotiations on Monday,’ Greece’s Prime Minister Tsipras said in a weekend interview with Germany’s Stern magazine. ‘Nevertheless, I’m full of confidence.’
Perhaps the majority of the uptrend can be attributed to data which showed the Eurozone trade balance widened. Non-seasonally adjusted Trade Balance came in at 24.3 billion, bettering the previous figure of 21.2 billion and the median market forecast of a drop to 20.0 billion. In addition, regular trade balance improved upon the previous figure of 21.6 billion, with the actual result reaching 23.3 billion.
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Egypt's Juhayna posts 48 pct net profit fall as costs rise

CAIRO Feb 16 (Reuters) - Juhayna Food Industries, one of Egypt's largest dairy product and juice makers, posted a 48 percent fall in full-year net profit on Monday on higher input prices as well as currency rates.
Net profits fell to 170.1 million Egyptian pounds ($22.29 million) from 328.3 million, it said in a statement.
It cited "negative impact on profit margins from a large increase in the prices of raw materials, which have not been fully passed on to the consumer, in addition to the rise in energy prices and currency rates".
Energy prices rose by as much as 78 percent after Egypt slashed energy subsidies in July.
Juhayna also noted that a nationwide shortage of dollars had made it difficult to secure imports.
Sales rose to 3.7 billion pounds from 3.3 billion, it said.
The board of Juhayna, whose clients include Egypt Air and Air France, as well as hotels and restaurants, recommended the distribution of 0.10 pounds per share.
  
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Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) Exchange Rate Forecast – Greek Negotiations and Fed Minutes in Focus this Week

The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate is forecast to claw back some lost ground next week but any gains will all depend on the outcome of Monday’s crunch meeting of European Finance Ministers.
Economists are hoping that a deal will be reached between the Syriza led Greek government and its creditors in the European Union (EU), European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF).
A similar meeting held on Wednesday ended in a stalemate with no decision being decided. Greece is set to run out of funds at the end of the month and time for a compromise to be reached is running out fast.
Greece’s government has said that it will do everything it can for a deal to be reached but added that it will not abandon its pledge to the Greek people to end austerity. Data released at the end of the work further highlighted the challenges facing the country as it showed that the Greek economy contracted by 0.2% on a quarter on quarter basis in the final quarter of 2014.
In comparison Germany’s economy expanded strongly and the Eurozone as a whole expanded by 0.3%.

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Share Price of Ani SPA (ADR) Rally 3.51%

Shares of Eni SpA (ADR) (NYSE:E) rose by 3.51% in the past week and 8.32% for the past 4 weeks. For the past week, the counter has outperformed the S&P 500 by 1.46% and the outperformance increases to 4.32% for the past 4 weeks.
Shares of Eni SpA (E) zoomed 1.9371% or 0.69 points in todays trading session. Buyers continued to remain confident of the ticker and never let the price fall below the comfort zone. The shares ended the day at 36.31, after the stock managed 36.31 and 35.9301 as the two extremes. A total of 264,635 shares exchanged hands. The 52-week high of the counter is 55.7 and the 52-week low is 31.65. The 52-week high is approximately 36.05% above the current valuation. The stock has a 30-day simple moving average of 33.91 and a 60-day simple moving average of 35.85. The trading currency is in USD.
Eni SpA is an Italy-based multinational oil and gas company. It operates through seven segments. The Refining & Marketing segment focuses on refining and marketing of petroleum products. The Eni Trading covers group services in commodity trading, shipping and derivatives. The Chemicals covers the production and sale of petrochemical products. The Engineering & Construction includes the services for the oil and gas industry. The Exploration & Production focuses on exploration, development and production of oil and natural gas.

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Report checks the health of Medibank Private float

THIS week, one of the great divisive arguments on the sharemarket should finally be put to rest. Namely, is the recently privatised Medibank a winner or a loser?
Since the $5.7 billion float last November, investors have voted with their feet and bid high to get exposure to Medibank Private’s defensive growth profile, lack of debt, exposure to a strong part of the Australian economy and potentially strong dividend yield.
That has pushed the share price as high as $2.53, handing initial retail investors a 26.5 per cent profit and institutional players a still useful 17.7 per cent lift from their subscription price.
Now all of those healthy short-term gains swing squarely on Medibank Private’s first profit announcement as a public company, which chief executive George Savvides will outline this Friday. Any disappointment in the numbers compared to the prospectus forecast would quickly knock the stuffing out of those windfall gains while a better-than-expected half-year could potentially push the shares even higher.
While retail investors have progressively warmed to Medibank Private since the float, brokers have been more sanguine about the outlook, with UBS slapping a sell rating on the stock and a valuation of just $2 a share.

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Australia's QBE sells agency businesses for $225 mln

Feb 16 (Reuters) - Australia's QBE Insurance Group Ltd sold three agency businesses to broker Steadfast Group Ltd for $225 million, giving its smaller rival the country's largest group of underwriting firms as it seeks to repair its balance sheet.
After flagging widespread sales in August, Australia's biggest insurer said on Monday it sold its CHU Underwriting Agencies Pty Limited, Corporate Underwriting Agencies Pty Limited and Underwriting Agencies of Australia Pty Limited to Steadfast.
The A$290 million is an up-front cash price but the final price will be based on the businesses' performance in 2015 and 2016 and will potentially be as high as A$348 million, QBE said.
The sale advances QBE's widespread plan to cut debt after a foray into the United States, where it now gets a third of its premium revenue, left the company over-exposed to insurance payouts.
It also frees the company to focus on other aspects of the divestment plan it unveiled in August along with an 18 percent decline in half-year profit. That plan includes a share market listing of part of its mortgage insurance business and raising $750 million in a share placement.

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Here's what to really fear about the stock market

Six years into the bull market in stocks and there's no shortage of scary things on investors' worry list.

From Vladimir Putin and Greece to the dramatic plunge in oil prices, something is bound to trip up the stock market, right? After all, the good times on Wall Street can't last forever.

But the key to knowing where stocks are going next is focusing on the real risks to the market, not the irrational ones.
Fear a bubble in bonds, not stocks: Yes, stocks are up over 200% since the 2009 lows. And yes, the Dow is once again trading above 18,000 and the S&P 500 is just hit a new record.
But stocks are barely positive on the year. Valuations look a bit lofty, but not insanely high. There are good reasons for stocks to be up: The U.S. economy is humming along, the jobs market is finally looking strong and corporate profits continue to smash records.
Related: Greed is back! Stocks at all-time highs
It's much tougher to justify what's going on in the bond market. The yield on the 10-year Treasury isn't far from an all-time low. That usually happens during times of market stress, not when stocks are soaring.

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ACC to probe money laundering of Nasir Group

Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC) is set to investigate money laundering case against Nasir group.
ACC on Sunday formed a two-member investigative committee comprising Mir Md Joynul Abedin Shibli and Syed Iqbal Hossain to investigate the laundering of Tk 58 crore of Nasir Group.
On 8 March last year, ACC assistant director SM Rofiqul Islam filed a case against 10 people, including Nasir Group chairman Nasir Uddun Bishwas, on charge of laundering of Tk 58 crore through hundi.
The ACC sued general manager (import) Md Alfaz Uddin,  general manager (marketing) Md Shamim Ahammed, general manager (finance and accounts) Md Siddiqur Rahman, assistant general manager (buying) Md Modaidur Rahman, accounts Md Shamim, owner of AG money exchange Siddiqur Rahman, Nsir Group's worker Md Emdadul Haque, hundi businessman Md Firoz Ahmed and his son Md Adil Ahmed.
According to the ACC sources, Nasir Group trafficked huge amount in American dollars against every Letter of Credit (LC) through hundi.

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Commercial paper market facing liquidity squeeze

It’s the lubricant of the world’s financial machinery, and its pros fear there is a major jam coming soon.
The nuts-and-bolts sector of finance known as the $1.76 trillion US commercial paper market is facing a liquidity squeeze due to Washington regulators.
The critical short-term corporate debt market for paper under nine months in maturity could in the coming months see such influential firms as Fidelity Investments exiting part of the market due to Dodd-Frank regs.
To comply with Dodd-Frank and the SEC’s 2010 Consumer Protection Act, these firms will move their prime money-market funds — which include commercial paper — into only Treasuries or other government-guaranteed funds, company officials said.
In September 2007, right after Lehman Bros.’ bankruptcy, the seizure of the commercial paper market caused a few mutual funds “to break the buck,” or have a Net Asset Value below $1 per share, which caused panic in the market.

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With Markets At All Time Highs, Greece Is Gonna Blow; Sell Some Stocks

The United States’ stock market indexes are hitting new highs. This is primarily due to a market sugar-high induced by the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates at almost zero and injecting trillions of printed dollars into the American economy. However, Americans are not placing enough importance as to what is happening in Greece. This could be the black swan that destroys your retirement portfolio; for Greece is about to possibly be kicked out of the Eurozone, and that will have a devastating on American financial markets. Sugar-highs don’t last forever.

There is a political component to all of this as well. When Greece is booted from the common euro currency, Russia is willing and waiting to provide financial assistance to Greece and pull the country into Russian President Putin’s Eurasian Economic Union. This will drive a stake through the heart of NATO and will significantly increase the chances of the Western Alliance falling apart as France, Spain, Italy, and others are looking for monetary help as well due to their appalling national debts brought on by years of out-of-control spending.
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