Revisiting Nigeria’s Exchange Rate Management System

Following the perennial weakening of the naira, Obinna Chima wonders if the current exchange rate regime in Nigeria can support macroeconomic growth and incentivise foreign investors to hold Nigerian assets

The strong gyration in the Nigerian currency market in the past few days obviously got investors alarmed.  The apparent chaos in the market, which saw the value of the naira against the US dollar dropping to a historic low at the interbank segment of the market has also created a lot of anxiety in the system.

Specifically, the naira fell to around N205 to a dollar at the interbank segment of the foreign exchange market last week, despite several interventions by the central bank, as investors continued to weigh the effect of the polls’ shift on the economy.

As a result of the sustained depreciation of the naira, most financial market analysts have been predicting the likelihood of further devaluation of the currency by the central bank.

It was also learnt that most foreign investors have chosen to remain on the sidelines because of election-related uncertainties.

Indeed, exchange rate management in Nigeria have undergone significant changes over the past five decades.

In Nigeria, maintaining a realistic exchange rate for the naira is very crucial, given the structure of the economy, and the need to minimise distortions in production and consumption, increase the inflow of non-oil export receipts and attract foreign direct investment.

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Free Custom Pivot Point Indicator - Receive Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicator when you subscribe to our Weekly Newsletter AUDUSD: Forex Technical Analysis February 17, 2015

We would like to draw your attention to AUD/USD currency pair on the H4 chart. US financial markets were closed yesterday in observance of Presidents’ Day. Today the trading is performed on a regular basis, but there is no special US macroeconomic statistics released today. Monetary policy meeting minutes were published early this morning by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). We deem that no significant information was announced; anyway this was precisely what has pushed the Aussie higher. According to previous surveys, more than 60% of investors expected the RBA to cut again the rate to 2% at the next meeting scheduled on the third of March. In our opinion, it is now difficult to state certainly whether it happens or not. Especially that the most important Australian economic data will be released only on the second of March, just before the RBA meeting, and before that less significant statistics will be published. The lower the probability of a rate cut, the more chances has the Australian dollar to strengthen.

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China needs forex reforms in response to strong US dollar

As the American economy recovers and the Federal Reserve curtails its quantitative easing program, the US dollar is expected to continue to get stronger. Reinforcing the trend will be monetary easing measures by central banks in Europe, Japan and several other countries.
A strong dollar will create more volatility in global markets, cause crises in emerging economies and pose challenges for China's foreign exchange reforms. Therefore, a major challenge for Chinese authorities this year will be how to speed up and deepen reforms of its foreign exchange market and introduce liberalization at a time when the greenback is strong.
The European Central Bank's recent introduction of its own QE program has weighed on the yuan, which has nearly fallen by the maximum 2% in four foreign exchange trading sessions since Jan. 26. Unlike the decline of the yuan in February 2014, which was driven by the Chinese central bank's move to cut the yuan's daily mid-point price, the Chinese currency is set to experience a longer downturn against the greenback.
China's current foreign exchange market, which was established after the 2005 reforms, was built on a floating rate regulated by the mid-point price of the yuan against a basket of foreign currencies. But the yuan's rates have been decided mainly by its movement against the US dollar. The fact that the greenback is the major currency in the global market and has been weak has not only prevented the flaws of this system from becoming big problems but also made Chinese products more competitive internationally. 

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Lincoln Electric Reports Fourth Quarter And Full Year 2014 Results

Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. (the "Company") (Nasdaq: LECO) today reported fourth quarter 2014 net income of $75.2 million, or $0.96 per diluted share.  This compares with net income of $88.3 million, or $1.07 per diluted share, in the comparable 2013 period.  Adjusted net income in the fourth quarter 2014 was $75.4 million, or $0.96 per diluted share, compared with adjusted net income of $89.2 million, or $1.09 per diluted share, in the comparable 2013 period.  The 2013 period includes a benefit of $0.22 per diluted share from our Venezuelan operations, which operates in a hyper-inflationary environment.  This compares with no contribution to Adjusted net income from our Venezuelan operations in the fourth quarter 2014.

Sales decreased 4.3% to $684.0 million in the fourth quarter 2014 versus $714.8 million in the comparable 2013 period primarily due to unfavorable foreign currency translation and volume weakness in our South America Welding segment.  Operating income for the fourth quarter decreased 11.8% to $104.9 million, or 15.3% of sales, from $118.9 million, or 16.6% of sales, in the comparable 2013 period.  Adjusted operating income decreased 12.3% to $105.1 million or 15.4% of sales, compared with $119.9 million, or 16.8% of sales in 2013.  Lower 2014 operating income results primarily reflect a challenging year-over-year comparison in our South America Welding segment due to contraction in our Venezuelan operations. 

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INR to USD forex rates today: Rupee down 10 paise against dollar in early trade

Mumbai, Feb 18:  The rupee depreciated by 10 paise to 62.26 against the dollar in early trade today at the Interbank Foreign Exchange due to appreciation of the US currency overseas. Increased demand for the dollar from importers also put pressure on the rupee. Forex dealers attributed the rupee’s fall to the dollar’s gains against other currencies overseas but a higher opening of the domestic equity market, capped the losses.

The rupee had gained three paise to close at 62.16 against the dollar on Monday following continued selling of the US currency by banks and exporters. Forex market remained closed yesterday on account of ‘Mahashivratri’.

 

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Cryolife Trading Down 6.2% Following Weak Earnings (CRY)

Cryolife (NYSE:CRY) shares were down 6.2% during mid-day trading on Tuesday after the company announced weaker than expected quarterly earnings, Stock Ratings Network reports. The company traded as low as $10.52 and last traded at $10.60, with a volume of 119,108 shares traded. The stock had previously closed at $11.30.
The company reported $0.04 EPS for the quarter, missing the Thomson Reuters consensus estimate of $0.05 by $0.01. The company had revenue of $37.20 million for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $37.42 million. During the same quarter in the prior year, the company posted $0.08 earnings per share. The company’s quarterly revenue was up 4.8% on a year-over-year basis.
The company also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Friday, March 20th. Investors of record on Friday, March 13th will be paid a dividend of $0.03 per share. This represents a $0.12 annualized dividend and a dividend yield of 1.06%. The ex-dividend date is Wednesday, March 11th.
Separately, analysts at Piper Jaffray upgraded shares of Cryolife from a “neutral” rating to an “overweight” rating and set a $15.00 price target on the stock in a research note on Friday, January 2nd.
The stock’s 50-day moving average is $11. and its 200-day moving average is $10.56. The company has a market cap of $296.7 million and a P/E ratio of 22.47.

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Brent Sheather: You can trade your way over the fx cliff

There is a popular belief that lemmings (rodents with sharp teeth from the Arctic) regularly jump off cliffs to their death. Unfortunately for this story it's a misconception - lemmings don't do that - not on purpose anyway. However in the true spirit of financial journalism we will not let that fact get in the way of a good story therefore we will draw a parallel to lemming-like behaviour in the investment world.
It's called foreign exchange trading. Whilst fx trading is regularly promoted as a get rich quick scheme with numerous testimonials from individuals who have been able to leave their jobs and "trade successfully" the reality is, surprise, quite different. Of course anyone with half a brain and ten minutes to research the subject would discover that there is no free lunch, in fact, as one LA Times reporter put it, "foreign currency trading is easy - an easy way to lose money".

However the existence of big companies in NZ, Australia and globally serving the retail fx market suggests that there is a large and recurring supply of human lemmings happily willing to take the plunge.
This week we will dig the dirt on fx trading using research on the topic from some of the world's largest regulatory authorities.

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ICD: what’s next for the Islamic finance market?

Having shown its resilience by withstanding external financial shocks, and with cities across the world showing increased interest, it appears that Islamic finance is here to stay

The history of Islamic finance goes back more than 1,400 years, when the general population was mostly active in goods trading. However, modern Islamic finance has seen a rapid resurgence, particularly since the mid-1970s, and today one can claim that Islamic finance is present on a global basis across all segments of the financial markets. In fact, the industry has seen tremendous growth in the past 20 years, with total assets rising from $150bn in the 1990s to exceeding the $2tn mark in 2014.
More recently, global financial centres, such as London, Singapore, Hong Kong and Luxembourg have begun to show increasing interest in serving as financial hubs for Islamic finance. This has been spurred by successes in the sukuk (bond) market, which had a particularly commendable performance last year, reaching $104bn from 630 issues at the end of October 2014. Given the impact that the industry is having, World Finance sat down with the CEO of the Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector (ICD), Khaled Al-Aboodi, to discuss how Islamic finance aims to continue its success.
What do you think the potential of the Islamic finance market is?
We can see that Islamic finance is getting more and more recognition worldwide, especially due to its social and ethical aspects and also importantly for its impact on the real economy. As the Islamic finance industry expands its outreach and becomes more mainstream across the Muslim world we will certainly see more product innovation and a reduction in transaction costs, which should result in greater depth in the various segments of the markets. With more governments recognising the added value of Islamic finance as a comprehensive financial system, which can run parallel to their conventional system, more policy attention is being paid to introducing an Islamic finance legal and regulatory framework, which should lead to better corporate governance and risk management across the industry.

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FOREX-Euro skids as Greek debt talks break down and keep markets guessing

* Euro down against peers, but losses limited for now * Markets disappointed as Greek talks end abruptly without deal Adds details, quotes By Ian Chua and Shinichi Saoshiro SYDNEY/TOKYO, Feb 17 Reuters - The euro skidded on Tuesday after a collapse in talks to secure a new debt deal for Greece raised the prospect of negotiations dragging on until the last possible minute and keeping markets guessing. The common currency was down 0.2 percent at $1.1330EUR= , from Monday's high of $1.1429 and back near the bottom of its prevailing $1.1270-1.1534 range. Trading overnight was relatively light with U.S. markets shut for a public holiday. The euro struggled near a one-week low of 133.96 yen EURJPY=R . Against sterling, it came within a whisker of a 7-year trough of 73.69 penceEURGBP=R set last week. It was last at 73.74 pence. Talks between Greece and euro zone finance ministers broke down when Athens rejected a proposal to request a six-month extension of its international bailout as "unacceptable". "All up, still no deal. And something of a disappointment after what seemed to be the makings of a spirit of compromise last week," said David de Garis, senior economist at National Australia Bank. Renewed weakness in the euro helped lift the dollar index to 94.459, from a one-week low of 93.899. On the back of risk appetite dented by the latest turn in Greek debt talks, the dollar slipped overnight to a 10-day trough of 118.110 yenJPY= from a high of 118.88. It last traded at 118.330. FLASHBACKS OF 2011 The collapse of the talks unsettled markets although the consensus appears to still favour a last-minute deal for Greece, which faces the risk of running out of funds by the end of the month, when its bailout package expires

"The market has witnessed this before - it remembers the brinkmanship during the Greek debt negotiations of 2011. There are only nine trading days left until the Feb. 28 deadline but some see that as enough time. Thus we are not seeing the euro sold in panic," said Kyosuke Suzuki, director of forex at Societe Generale in Tokyo. "On the other hand tail risk is definitely rising. This is limiting bargain-hunting of the euro by short-term players and the currency will remain under selling pressure." The next focus points in the debt saga will be on Wednesday and Friday

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African mobile money market set to grow by $1.5 Bln by 2019

Sub-Saharan Africa is adopting mobile financial services at a pace seen in few other places, presenting banks and mobile-network operators (MNOs) with a set of strategic choices that will go a long way toward determining their success in the region.
The use of mobile financial services in sub-Saharan Africa to do such things as pay utility bills and send money to relatives could produce an estimated $1.5 billion in fees for mobile-money providers by 2019, according to research being published today by The Boston Consulting Group (BCG). The report, Africa Blazes a Trail in Mobile Money: Time for Banks and Mobile Operators to Devise Strategies, says that sub-Saharan Africans are looking for more-secure ways to borrow and save money and are open to other financial products delivered using mobile phones, including loans and insurance.
Although mobile financial services are emerging all over the world, sub-Saharan Africa’s unique circumstances—a combination of a mostly “unbanked” population and heavy mobile-phone penetration—have turned the region into an early adopter of mobile banking and a test bed for the technology’s potential. Eight of the ten countries that make the most use of mobile financial services are in Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa has the highest proportion of active accounts (43 percent).

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Rosenthal Collins Group Named Best Boutique FCM By CTA Intelligence Magazine

CHICAGO, Feb. 17, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Rosenthal Collins Group LLC (RCG^®), a leading independent futures clearing firm, today announced that CTA Intelligence magazine this month named RCG "Best Boutique" Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) in its U.S. CTA Intelligence Services Awards 2015. The awards recognize and honor firms that have provided "outstanding support and services to the North American managed futures industry" and "demonstrated exceptional customer service" over the past 12 months.

CTA Intelligence is a subscription-only monthly publication published by Pageant Media, focused on the key issues and commercial opportunities for professionals working in the commodity trading advisor (CTA) and managed futures space.

RCG Chairman and CEO Scott Gordon said: "We're honored that CTA Intelligence selected the firm for this award. We always strive to offer the highest level of dedicated service, flexibility and comprehensive support to the futures community, from CTAs, to Introducing Brokers, to professional traders, as well as commercial and retail clients."

An independent panel of expert industry judges selected the winners. In the Best Boutique FCM category, CTA Intelligence judges reported that Rosenthal Collins Group had "consistently outperformed in a crowded and competitive space. Defined by a commitment to client service and excellent technology, RCG was deemed capable of taking business from larger bank-owned competitors and winning more market share in a resurgent CTA industry." The judges characterized RCG as "an outstanding player in the FCM space."

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Why households stay away from the stock market

Over the last three years the Indian stock market has seen a near persistent bull run. Between November 23, 2011 and November 28, 2014, the closing value of the Sensex rose by 280 per cent, or an average of more than 90 per cent a year. That signals the kind of yield that the market would have generated even for those who had a portfolio that replicated trends in the 30-stock Sensex.

Interestingly, this was a time when households were cutting back on their financial savings with the ratio of gross financial savings of households to GDP falling from 15.1 per cent in 2009-10 to 10.3 per cent in 2012-13.

That retreat has affected household exposure to stock markets as well, one consequence of which is the extremely poor performance of the primary market and the virtual absence of IPOs from all but the largest of firms. Households in India (as elsewhere) are major contributors to the nation’s savings. Based on the National Accounts series with 2004-05 as base, the share of household savings in gross financial savings of the nation as a whole fell from 72.7 per cent in 2004-05 to 60.9 per cent in 2007-08, then rose to 74.7 per cent in 2009-10 and stood in 2012-13 at 72.7 per cent (the same level recorded in 2004-05). Thus, though volatile, the share of household savings in aggregate savings has mostly remained in the 70 to 75 per cent range.

Not so robust

The National Accounts statistics compute households’ savings as the sum total of household financial savings and the savings of households in physical assets. As direct capital formation estimates from the household sector are not available, the value of household savings in physical assets is computed as a residual, by deducting independently estimated figures of capital formation in the public and private corporate sectors from an estimate of capital formation for the economy as a whole generated through a commodity flow approach.

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Market breadth turns negative from positive

A bout of volatility was witnessed as key benchmark retained positive zone in early afternoon trade after the latest data showed that the annual rate of inflation based on monthly wholesale price index was in negative zone January 2015. The market breadth indicating the overall health of the market turned negative from positive. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, was currently up 85.23 points or 0.29% at 29,180.16.
Housing finance major HDFC rose after good Q3 results. Pharmaceutical shares were mixed.
Earlier, the Sensex and the 50-unit CNX Nifty had, both, hit their highest levels in almost 2-1/2 weeks in early trade.
Foreign portfolio investors bought shares worth a net Rs 390.26 crore during the previous trading session on Friday, 13 February 2015, as per provisional data released by the stock exchanges. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought shares worth a net Rs 95.82 crore on Friday, 13 February 2015, as per provisional data.
In the foreign exchange market, the rupee edged lower against the dollar.
Brent crude oil futures edged lower after a rally during the previous trading session on Friday, 13 February 2015. Global crude oil prices have bounced back over the past few days after a steep slide in prices over the past few months. The recent rebound in global crude oil prices will raise concerns pertaining to India's fiscal deficit, current account deficit and fuel price inflation. India imports about 80% of its crude oil requirements.

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Commodity firm Noble rejects accounting allegations

One of Asia's biggest commodity-trading firms, Noble, has said that it "completely rejects" allegations made by a research firm over its accounting practices.

A 17-page report by Iceberg Research posted online alleges that Noble "uses accounting loopholes".
The Singapore-listed shares of Noble fell by as much as 10% on Monday.
This caused the stock exchange to send the firm a formal query over the unusual price movement.
Noble said that "save for the report, the company is not aware of any other possible explanation of the trading".
"All material information to which Iceberg Research refers is in the public domain. There has been no material adverse change since the company last reported," Noble said in a statement to the Singapore stock exchange,
"The company reserves its rights against Iceberg Research."
Not much is known about Iceberg Research, which refused to reveal its location or employee size when contacted by the BBC.

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Shares in Asia mostly weaker after Greece talks impasse, Shanghai up

Shares in Asia dipped on Tuesday after talks between Greece and its creditors broke down, setting the stage for some volatility ahead of the Chinese New Year holidays that start this week.

Talks between Greece and euro zone finance ministers over the country's debt broke down on Monday when Athens rejected a proposal to request a six-month extension of its international bailout as "unacceptable".

The unexpectedly rapid collapse raised doubts about Greece's future in the single currency area after a new leftist-led government vowed to scrap the 240 billion euro bailout, reverse austerity policies and end cooperation with EU/IMF inspectors.
Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who chaired the meeting, said Athens had until Friday to request an extension, otherwise the bailout would expire at the end of the month.
Greece’s current €240 billion bailout is due to expire on February 28 and the new Greek government does not want it extended, fuelling fears over a conflict with its creditors which could trigger the country’s exit from the euro zone.
Greece's Finance Minister Yiannis Varoufakis said Monday that he was ready to sign a document drafted by the European Commission, which outlined a deal between Greece and its partners.
However, Varoufakis said, Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem presented him with another document, which referred to past policies and was vague in key issues such as "flexibility", which he could not accept.
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NYMEX crude eases in early Asia as Greece talks reach impasse on bailout

Crude oil prices eassed Tuesday in Asia ahead of U.S. supply data later in the week and as investors eyed talks between Greece and euro zone finance ministers that broke down overnight when Athens rejected a proposal to request a six-month extension of its international bailout as "unacceptable".
The unexpectedly rapid collapse raised doubts about Greece's future in the single currency area after a new leftist-led government vowed to scrap the 240 billion euro bailout, reverse austerity policies and end cooperation with EU/IMF inspectors.

Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who chaired the meeting, said Athens had until Friday to request an extension, otherwise the bailout would expire at the end of the month.
Greece’s current €240 billion bailout is due to expire on February 28 and the new Greek government does not want it extended, fuelling fears over a conflict with its creditors which could trigger the country’s exit from the euro zone.
Greece's Finance Minister Yiannis Varoufakis said Monday that he was ready to sign a document drafted by the European Commission, which outlined a deal between Greece and its partners.

However, Varoufakis said, Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem presented him with another document, which referred to past policies and was vague in key issues such as "flexibility", which he could not accept.
Data normally released Tuesday on U.S. supplies of crude and refined products will be delayed by a day because of a U.S. public holiday on Monday. Related U.S. Department of Energy figures normally released on Wednesday will be issued on Thursday this week.
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Euro to Australian Dollar (EUR/AUD) Exchange Rate Forecast to Edge Higher on Eurozone Trade Surplus

The Euro to Australian Dollar (EUR/AUD) exchange rate edged higher by around 0.25% on Monday.

As traders await the Eurogroup meeting, which will see Eurozone officials attempt to find a utilitarian solution to the Greek debt crisis, the shared currency gained versus many of its major peers. This suggests that many are optimistic that the meeting will see a positive conclusion, although most are probably expecting relative inaction. Eurozone trade balance data printed positively, however, which has aided the common currency uptrend.
The Australian Dollar, meanwhile, is generally trending higher versus most of its major peers in response to climbing oil prices. With risk appetite improved, the high-yielding potential of the ‘Aussie’ (AUD) supported an appreciation.
The Euro to Australian Dollar (EUR/AUD) exchange rate is currently trending in the region of 1.4674.

Euro (EUR) Exchange Rate Strengthens ahead of Eurogroup Meeting

As explained above, with many analysts expecting little development in today’s Eurogroup meeting the shared currency strengthened. ‘We’re looking at difficult negotiations on Monday,’ Greece’s Prime Minister Tsipras said in a weekend interview with Germany’s Stern magazine. ‘Nevertheless, I’m full of confidence.’
Perhaps the majority of the uptrend can be attributed to data which showed the Eurozone trade balance widened. Non-seasonally adjusted Trade Balance came in at 24.3 billion, bettering the previous figure of 21.2 billion and the median market forecast of a drop to 20.0 billion. In addition, regular trade balance improved upon the previous figure of 21.6 billion, with the actual result reaching 23.3 billion.
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BTER Exchange Claims $1.75m in Bitcoin Stolen in Cold Wallet Hack

Digital currency exchange BTER announced that it has lost 7,170 bitcoins, or roughly $1.75 million at press time, in an apparent hack on its cold wallet system.
In a statement posted to the China-based exchange's website, the company said that it had shut down its platform in the wake of the attack and that withdrawals for user balances "will be arranged later".
A separate post on Chinese social media platform Weibo from BTER claimed that it was working with law enforcement officials on the matter.
Initially, BTER had posted on its website that a "security check" was underway and that the exchange would be temporarily suspended prior to another update. It remains unclear exactly how the BTER cold wallet was compromised.
BTER says it is offering a 720 BTC bounty "for chasing it back", although the company did not elaborate on the exact nature of the bounty. CoinDesk has reached out to BTER for comment on the hack but did not receive an immediate reply.
The stolen funds were broadcast through this transaction, according to the announcement, and the bitcoins appear to have been split into a number of separate wallets since the alleged intrusion.

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Egypt's Juhayna posts 48 pct net profit fall as costs rise

CAIRO Feb 16 (Reuters) - Juhayna Food Industries, one of Egypt's largest dairy product and juice makers, posted a 48 percent fall in full-year net profit on Monday on higher input prices as well as currency rates.
Net profits fell to 170.1 million Egyptian pounds ($22.29 million) from 328.3 million, it said in a statement.
It cited "negative impact on profit margins from a large increase in the prices of raw materials, which have not been fully passed on to the consumer, in addition to the rise in energy prices and currency rates".
Energy prices rose by as much as 78 percent after Egypt slashed energy subsidies in July.
Juhayna also noted that a nationwide shortage of dollars had made it difficult to secure imports.
Sales rose to 3.7 billion pounds from 3.3 billion, it said.
The board of Juhayna, whose clients include Egypt Air and Air France, as well as hotels and restaurants, recommended the distribution of 0.10 pounds per share.
  
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Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) Exchange Rate Forecast – Greek Negotiations and Fed Minutes in Focus this Week

The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate is forecast to claw back some lost ground next week but any gains will all depend on the outcome of Monday’s crunch meeting of European Finance Ministers.
Economists are hoping that a deal will be reached between the Syriza led Greek government and its creditors in the European Union (EU), European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF).
A similar meeting held on Wednesday ended in a stalemate with no decision being decided. Greece is set to run out of funds at the end of the month and time for a compromise to be reached is running out fast.
Greece’s government has said that it will do everything it can for a deal to be reached but added that it will not abandon its pledge to the Greek people to end austerity. Data released at the end of the work further highlighted the challenges facing the country as it showed that the Greek economy contracted by 0.2% on a quarter on quarter basis in the final quarter of 2014.
In comparison Germany’s economy expanded strongly and the Eurozone as a whole expanded by 0.3%.

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