Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD) Exchange Rate Forecast to Trend within Narrow Rangeon Oil Prices

The Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD) exchange rate was trending within a limited range on Wednesday afternoon. 

As tensions between Greece and the Eurogroup mount, the shared currency softened versus the majority of its most traded currency rivals. Additional declination is as a result of less-than-impressive Eurozone construction output.
The Canadian Dollar, meanwhile, softened versus nearly all of its major peers thanks to declination in the crude market. With demand cooling and supply rising, prices are expected to drop below $50 a barrel again.
The Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD) exchange rate is currently trending in the region of 1.4128.

Euro (EUR) Exchange Rate Softens on Grexit Potential

The common currency softened on Wednesday after Tuesday’s Eurogroup meeting failed to find a utilitarian resolution to Greece’s debt crisis. Fears that they will be unable to agree on a compromise has seen trader confidence cool with regards to Euro investment.
‘If we want to avoid going into unknown territory, the only way is to have some time and some tranquility,’ French Finance Minister Michel Sapin told reporters in Brussels Tuesday. ‘That means the prolongation of the program. It’s the only legal tool available.’

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Euro Exchange Rate Forecast: EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, EUR/NZD, EUR/JPY, EUR/CHF – ZEW Swiss Expectations Tumbles to Historical Low

The Euro to British Pound (EUR/GBP), Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD), Euro to New Zealand Dollar (EUR/NZD) and Euro to Japanese Yen (EUR/JPY) exchange rates all softened early in Wednesday’s European trading while the Euro to Swiss Franc (EUR/CHF) exchange rate recorded gains.
The Euro to British Pound (EUR/GBP) exchange rate took a rather significant dive when UK employment data beat economists’ forecasts and offered hope that the UK economic recovery is progressing strongly despite rumours of a slowdown.
UK Jobless Claims Change was expected to show a -25.0K reduction in jobseekers in January after December’s -29.7K improvement; however, the actual ecostat managed to surge at -38.6K. In addition, Employment Change rocketed to 103K in the three months through December, doubling forecasts of 50K.
The jump in employment saw the UK Unemployment Rate decline from 5.8% to 5.7% in the last three months of 2014 and Average Weekly Earnings finally recorded some substantial progress, rising from a positively revised 1.8% to 2.1%.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar could be in for some movement on Wednesday with the release of MBA Mortgage Applications, Building Permits and Housing Starts stats data.
Tuesday was a poor day for US domestic data when the NAHB Housing Market Index declined from 57 to 55 in February—a surprise turn of events considering economists had forecast a rise to 58.
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PHL financial markets close for Chinese New Year

Philippine financial markets are closed Thursday for the Lunar New Year, after Malacañang declared Feb. 19 a special nonworking holiday.

 

Financial markets in China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea are also closed.

 

On Wednesday, the PSEi closed to its 13th record high of 7,803.45 and after touching a new intraday high of 7,840.39.

Meanwhile, the peso inched higher to 44.235:$1 .from 44.245:$1.

 

Analysts said 

Philippines markets are expected to catch up with developments in foreign markets when trading resumes on Friday, a day after the US Federal Reserve would have released the minutes of its January meeting.

 

Yields on short-term US Treasuries fell by the most since August 2011 after minutes of the Federal Reserve's last meeting showed "many" members wanted to keep rates near zero for longer, Reuters reported. – Danessa O. Rivera/VS, GMA News

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Revisiting Nigeria’s Exchange Rate Management System

Following the perennial weakening of the naira, Obinna Chima wonders if the current exchange rate regime in Nigeria can support macroeconomic growth and incentivise foreign investors to hold Nigerian assets

The strong gyration in the Nigerian currency market in the past few days obviously got investors alarmed.  The apparent chaos in the market, which saw the value of the naira against the US dollar dropping to a historic low at the interbank segment of the market has also created a lot of anxiety in the system.

Specifically, the naira fell to around N205 to a dollar at the interbank segment of the foreign exchange market last week, despite several interventions by the central bank, as investors continued to weigh the effect of the polls’ shift on the economy.

As a result of the sustained depreciation of the naira, most financial market analysts have been predicting the likelihood of further devaluation of the currency by the central bank.

It was also learnt that most foreign investors have chosen to remain on the sidelines because of election-related uncertainties.

Indeed, exchange rate management in Nigeria have undergone significant changes over the past five decades.

In Nigeria, maintaining a realistic exchange rate for the naira is very crucial, given the structure of the economy, and the need to minimise distortions in production and consumption, increase the inflow of non-oil export receipts and attract foreign direct investment.

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Free Custom Pivot Point Indicator - Receive Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicator when you subscribe to our Weekly Newsletter AUDUSD: Forex Technical Analysis February 17, 2015

We would like to draw your attention to AUD/USD currency pair on the H4 chart. US financial markets were closed yesterday in observance of Presidents’ Day. Today the trading is performed on a regular basis, but there is no special US macroeconomic statistics released today. Monetary policy meeting minutes were published early this morning by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). We deem that no significant information was announced; anyway this was precisely what has pushed the Aussie higher. According to previous surveys, more than 60% of investors expected the RBA to cut again the rate to 2% at the next meeting scheduled on the third of March. In our opinion, it is now difficult to state certainly whether it happens or not. Especially that the most important Australian economic data will be released only on the second of March, just before the RBA meeting, and before that less significant statistics will be published. The lower the probability of a rate cut, the more chances has the Australian dollar to strengthen.

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China needs forex reforms in response to strong US dollar

As the American economy recovers and the Federal Reserve curtails its quantitative easing program, the US dollar is expected to continue to get stronger. Reinforcing the trend will be monetary easing measures by central banks in Europe, Japan and several other countries.
A strong dollar will create more volatility in global markets, cause crises in emerging economies and pose challenges for China's foreign exchange reforms. Therefore, a major challenge for Chinese authorities this year will be how to speed up and deepen reforms of its foreign exchange market and introduce liberalization at a time when the greenback is strong.
The European Central Bank's recent introduction of its own QE program has weighed on the yuan, which has nearly fallen by the maximum 2% in four foreign exchange trading sessions since Jan. 26. Unlike the decline of the yuan in February 2014, which was driven by the Chinese central bank's move to cut the yuan's daily mid-point price, the Chinese currency is set to experience a longer downturn against the greenback.
China's current foreign exchange market, which was established after the 2005 reforms, was built on a floating rate regulated by the mid-point price of the yuan against a basket of foreign currencies. But the yuan's rates have been decided mainly by its movement against the US dollar. The fact that the greenback is the major currency in the global market and has been weak has not only prevented the flaws of this system from becoming big problems but also made Chinese products more competitive internationally. 

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Lincoln Electric Reports Fourth Quarter And Full Year 2014 Results

Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. (the "Company") (Nasdaq: LECO) today reported fourth quarter 2014 net income of $75.2 million, or $0.96 per diluted share.  This compares with net income of $88.3 million, or $1.07 per diluted share, in the comparable 2013 period.  Adjusted net income in the fourth quarter 2014 was $75.4 million, or $0.96 per diluted share, compared with adjusted net income of $89.2 million, or $1.09 per diluted share, in the comparable 2013 period.  The 2013 period includes a benefit of $0.22 per diluted share from our Venezuelan operations, which operates in a hyper-inflationary environment.  This compares with no contribution to Adjusted net income from our Venezuelan operations in the fourth quarter 2014.

Sales decreased 4.3% to $684.0 million in the fourth quarter 2014 versus $714.8 million in the comparable 2013 period primarily due to unfavorable foreign currency translation and volume weakness in our South America Welding segment.  Operating income for the fourth quarter decreased 11.8% to $104.9 million, or 15.3% of sales, from $118.9 million, or 16.6% of sales, in the comparable 2013 period.  Adjusted operating income decreased 12.3% to $105.1 million or 15.4% of sales, compared with $119.9 million, or 16.8% of sales in 2013.  Lower 2014 operating income results primarily reflect a challenging year-over-year comparison in our South America Welding segment due to contraction in our Venezuelan operations. 

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INR to USD forex rates today: Rupee down 10 paise against dollar in early trade

Mumbai, Feb 18:  The rupee depreciated by 10 paise to 62.26 against the dollar in early trade today at the Interbank Foreign Exchange due to appreciation of the US currency overseas. Increased demand for the dollar from importers also put pressure on the rupee. Forex dealers attributed the rupee’s fall to the dollar’s gains against other currencies overseas but a higher opening of the domestic equity market, capped the losses.

The rupee had gained three paise to close at 62.16 against the dollar on Monday following continued selling of the US currency by banks and exporters. Forex market remained closed yesterday on account of ‘Mahashivratri’.

 

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Naira Hits N210/N213 to Dollar at Bureau De Change & Black Market

The Naira on Monday lost N2 to the dollar to sell at N210 at the Bureau De Change (BDCs) segment of the official market.

It also depreciated by N4 at the black market, selling at N213 to the dollar.

A dealer, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) that the depreciation might not be unconnected with the closure of trading at the interbank market by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

The dealer also said that the CBN’s decision which was meant to control speculations in the market might be responsible for the depreciation.

NAN reports that the Naira against the pound at the BDCs and black market sold for N307 and N314 respectively.

It, however, exchanged against the Euro at N235 at the BDCs, while it sold for N237 at the black market.

NAN recalls that CBN Governor, Godwin Emefiele, said that only BDCs and banks with genuine demand for foreign exchange will get forex allocation.

The CBN on Jan. 28 put up measures to calm the strong volatility observed in the forex market to save the naira from further depreciation.

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Cryolife Trading Down 6.2% Following Weak Earnings (CRY)

Cryolife (NYSE:CRY) shares were down 6.2% during mid-day trading on Tuesday after the company announced weaker than expected quarterly earnings, Stock Ratings Network reports. The company traded as low as $10.52 and last traded at $10.60, with a volume of 119,108 shares traded. The stock had previously closed at $11.30.
The company reported $0.04 EPS for the quarter, missing the Thomson Reuters consensus estimate of $0.05 by $0.01. The company had revenue of $37.20 million for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $37.42 million. During the same quarter in the prior year, the company posted $0.08 earnings per share. The company’s quarterly revenue was up 4.8% on a year-over-year basis.
The company also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Friday, March 20th. Investors of record on Friday, March 13th will be paid a dividend of $0.03 per share. This represents a $0.12 annualized dividend and a dividend yield of 1.06%. The ex-dividend date is Wednesday, March 11th.
Separately, analysts at Piper Jaffray upgraded shares of Cryolife from a “neutral” rating to an “overweight” rating and set a $15.00 price target on the stock in a research note on Friday, January 2nd.
The stock’s 50-day moving average is $11. and its 200-day moving average is $10.56. The company has a market cap of $296.7 million and a P/E ratio of 22.47.

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Georgia sees decrease in remittances

The volume of remittances stood at $75.5 million in January 2015, which is almost 25 percent lower than the same period in 2014, the National Bank of Georgia reported.
The first month of 2015 saw a 23.3 percent drop or $23 million in total amount of international money transfers, the bank added.
The bank said while nine big donor countries made up 89.6 percent of the total volume of money transfers in January 2014, the figure dropped to 87 percent this year.
Meanwhile, nearly $12.5 million was transferred from Georgia in January 2015, being as same as the amount transferred in January last year.

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Forex Market: EUR/GBP daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/GBP within the range of 0.7374-0.7429. The pair closed at 0.7390, down 0.14% on a daily basis, which marked a third consecutive daily loss.
At 7:16 GMT today EUR/GBP was up 0.03% for the day to trade at 0.7392. The pair touched a daily high at 0.7395 during early Asian trade.

Fundamentals

Euro area

Economic Sentiment by the ZEW

The gauge of economic sentiment in Germany probably improved to 55.0 in February, according to the median forecast by experts, from 48.4 in January. If so, this would be the highest index reading since February 2014, when it was reported at 55.7.
In October last year the index entered into negative territory for the first time since November 2012, slipping to -3.6.
The ZEW (Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung) economic expectations index is published on a monthly basis. The study encompasses up to 350 financial and economic analysts. The indicator reflects the difference between the share of analysts, that are optimistic and those, that are pessimistic about the expected economic development in Germany over the next six months. A positive value indicates that the proportion of optimists is larger than that of pessimists. A ZEW reading of -100 suggests that all analysts are pessimistic about the current developments and expect economic conditions to deteriorate. A ZEW reading of 100 implies that all analysts are optimistic about the current situation and expect conditions to improve. A ZEW reading of 0 indicates neutrality.

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Brent Sheather: You can trade your way over the fx cliff

There is a popular belief that lemmings (rodents with sharp teeth from the Arctic) regularly jump off cliffs to their death. Unfortunately for this story it's a misconception - lemmings don't do that - not on purpose anyway. However in the true spirit of financial journalism we will not let that fact get in the way of a good story therefore we will draw a parallel to lemming-like behaviour in the investment world.
It's called foreign exchange trading. Whilst fx trading is regularly promoted as a get rich quick scheme with numerous testimonials from individuals who have been able to leave their jobs and "trade successfully" the reality is, surprise, quite different. Of course anyone with half a brain and ten minutes to research the subject would discover that there is no free lunch, in fact, as one LA Times reporter put it, "foreign currency trading is easy - an easy way to lose money".

However the existence of big companies in NZ, Australia and globally serving the retail fx market suggests that there is a large and recurring supply of human lemmings happily willing to take the plunge.
This week we will dig the dirt on fx trading using research on the topic from some of the world's largest regulatory authorities.

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ICD: what’s next for the Islamic finance market?

Having shown its resilience by withstanding external financial shocks, and with cities across the world showing increased interest, it appears that Islamic finance is here to stay

The history of Islamic finance goes back more than 1,400 years, when the general population was mostly active in goods trading. However, modern Islamic finance has seen a rapid resurgence, particularly since the mid-1970s, and today one can claim that Islamic finance is present on a global basis across all segments of the financial markets. In fact, the industry has seen tremendous growth in the past 20 years, with total assets rising from $150bn in the 1990s to exceeding the $2tn mark in 2014.
More recently, global financial centres, such as London, Singapore, Hong Kong and Luxembourg have begun to show increasing interest in serving as financial hubs for Islamic finance. This has been spurred by successes in the sukuk (bond) market, which had a particularly commendable performance last year, reaching $104bn from 630 issues at the end of October 2014. Given the impact that the industry is having, World Finance sat down with the CEO of the Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector (ICD), Khaled Al-Aboodi, to discuss how Islamic finance aims to continue its success.
What do you think the potential of the Islamic finance market is?
We can see that Islamic finance is getting more and more recognition worldwide, especially due to its social and ethical aspects and also importantly for its impact on the real economy. As the Islamic finance industry expands its outreach and becomes more mainstream across the Muslim world we will certainly see more product innovation and a reduction in transaction costs, which should result in greater depth in the various segments of the markets. With more governments recognising the added value of Islamic finance as a comprehensive financial system, which can run parallel to their conventional system, more policy attention is being paid to introducing an Islamic finance legal and regulatory framework, which should lead to better corporate governance and risk management across the industry.

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6 Ways B2B Marketers Use Social Media To Get Gangbuster Results

Social media is a proven winner for B2C marketers, and recent research proves it. In fact, according to a survey from Vision Critical, four out of 10 consumers buy products that they’ve liked, tweeted about, favorited, or pinned on their social network of choice. But what about B2B marketers? How are they using social to reach their prospects? It appears that when it comes to reaching business customers through social channels, content is the key. According to a study from MarketingProfs, 87% of B2B marketers are using social media platforms to promote their content marketing.
However, there’s a problem with using social media to deliver content to business prospects. The thing is, Facebook likes, Twitter retweets, Pinterest pins and LinkedIn followers don’t necessarily translate into new customers – or measurable return on investment (ROI). Without a strong strategy in place, as well as the proper tools to measure the impact of your social campaigns, you may be wasting both your time and your budget on social media marketing.
Look at it this way. Which would you rather have, 1,000 followers who never do more than like or retweet your content, or 500 followers who actually visit your site and recommend your brand to others? Obviously you’d rather have the latter, especially if they fit the profile of your ideal customer. After all, the purpose of social media marketing isn’t to gain new fans, it’s to acquire high-value customers. What does it take to make that happen, and how can you turn those interactions into increased revenue?

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FOREX-Euro skids as Greek debt talks break down and keep markets guessing

* Euro down against peers, but losses limited for now * Markets disappointed as Greek talks end abruptly without deal Adds details, quotes By Ian Chua and Shinichi Saoshiro SYDNEY/TOKYO, Feb 17 Reuters - The euro skidded on Tuesday after a collapse in talks to secure a new debt deal for Greece raised the prospect of negotiations dragging on until the last possible minute and keeping markets guessing. The common currency was down 0.2 percent at $1.1330EUR= , from Monday's high of $1.1429 and back near the bottom of its prevailing $1.1270-1.1534 range. Trading overnight was relatively light with U.S. markets shut for a public holiday. The euro struggled near a one-week low of 133.96 yen EURJPY=R . Against sterling, it came within a whisker of a 7-year trough of 73.69 penceEURGBP=R set last week. It was last at 73.74 pence. Talks between Greece and euro zone finance ministers broke down when Athens rejected a proposal to request a six-month extension of its international bailout as "unacceptable". "All up, still no deal. And something of a disappointment after what seemed to be the makings of a spirit of compromise last week," said David de Garis, senior economist at National Australia Bank. Renewed weakness in the euro helped lift the dollar index to 94.459, from a one-week low of 93.899. On the back of risk appetite dented by the latest turn in Greek debt talks, the dollar slipped overnight to a 10-day trough of 118.110 yenJPY= from a high of 118.88. It last traded at 118.330. FLASHBACKS OF 2011 The collapse of the talks unsettled markets although the consensus appears to still favour a last-minute deal for Greece, which faces the risk of running out of funds by the end of the month, when its bailout package expires

"The market has witnessed this before - it remembers the brinkmanship during the Greek debt negotiations of 2011. There are only nine trading days left until the Feb. 28 deadline but some see that as enough time. Thus we are not seeing the euro sold in panic," said Kyosuke Suzuki, director of forex at Societe Generale in Tokyo. "On the other hand tail risk is definitely rising. This is limiting bargain-hunting of the euro by short-term players and the currency will remain under selling pressure." The next focus points in the debt saga will be on Wednesday and Friday

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African mobile money market set to grow by $1.5 Bln by 2019

Sub-Saharan Africa is adopting mobile financial services at a pace seen in few other places, presenting banks and mobile-network operators (MNOs) with a set of strategic choices that will go a long way toward determining their success in the region.
The use of mobile financial services in sub-Saharan Africa to do such things as pay utility bills and send money to relatives could produce an estimated $1.5 billion in fees for mobile-money providers by 2019, according to research being published today by The Boston Consulting Group (BCG). The report, Africa Blazes a Trail in Mobile Money: Time for Banks and Mobile Operators to Devise Strategies, says that sub-Saharan Africans are looking for more-secure ways to borrow and save money and are open to other financial products delivered using mobile phones, including loans and insurance.
Although mobile financial services are emerging all over the world, sub-Saharan Africa’s unique circumstances—a combination of a mostly “unbanked” population and heavy mobile-phone penetration—have turned the region into an early adopter of mobile banking and a test bed for the technology’s potential. Eight of the ten countries that make the most use of mobile financial services are in Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa has the highest proportion of active accounts (43 percent).

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Rosenthal Collins Group Named Best Boutique FCM By CTA Intelligence Magazine

CHICAGO, Feb. 17, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Rosenthal Collins Group LLC (RCG^®), a leading independent futures clearing firm, today announced that CTA Intelligence magazine this month named RCG "Best Boutique" Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) in its U.S. CTA Intelligence Services Awards 2015. The awards recognize and honor firms that have provided "outstanding support and services to the North American managed futures industry" and "demonstrated exceptional customer service" over the past 12 months.

CTA Intelligence is a subscription-only monthly publication published by Pageant Media, focused on the key issues and commercial opportunities for professionals working in the commodity trading advisor (CTA) and managed futures space.

RCG Chairman and CEO Scott Gordon said: "We're honored that CTA Intelligence selected the firm for this award. We always strive to offer the highest level of dedicated service, flexibility and comprehensive support to the futures community, from CTAs, to Introducing Brokers, to professional traders, as well as commercial and retail clients."

An independent panel of expert industry judges selected the winners. In the Best Boutique FCM category, CTA Intelligence judges reported that Rosenthal Collins Group had "consistently outperformed in a crowded and competitive space. Defined by a commitment to client service and excellent technology, RCG was deemed capable of taking business from larger bank-owned competitors and winning more market share in a resurgent CTA industry." The judges characterized RCG as "an outstanding player in the FCM space."

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The Let’s Inform You Seminar with a free lunch is back, register now!

HE famous Let’s Inform You (Free Lunch) Seminar is back in February, this time at The Manor House, Paredon, Pinoso 03650 on Tuesday February, 17 2015 - noon start.
Over recent months experts from four local companies have answered well over 900 questions from the people who have attended seminars on the Costa Blanca. Feedback has been very positive from this fantastic and really great opportunity.
How wonderful it is to be able to ask the experts in various fields about how things work in Spain.
Once again the highly respected UK and Spanish companies based on the Costa Blanca are inviting all British and European nationals, spending time or living in Spain, to a relaxed seminar to answer all the questions they have regarding life in Spain.

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Euronext Agrees To Extend Milling Wheat Contract To Johannesburg Stock Exchange

Exchange operator Euronext N.V. (ENXB.BE,ENX.BR,ENX.AS,ENX.PA) Monday announced that it has signed a license agreement with the Johannesburg Stock Exchange or JSE. The deal provides the JSE with the right to list the flagship Milling Wheat contract currently traded on Euronext.
The aim of the agreement is to extend access to the global benchmark Milling Wheat contract by broadening its international exposure to a wider audience. The agreement also extends Euronext's reach into Africa, which according to International Monetary Fund forecasts, will be the world's second fastest-growing region next year, expanding 5.75 percent.
The license agreement signed between the two exchanges is reciprocal, enabling each exchange the right to use the settlement prices and brands for the other's commodities contracts.

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Market pulled down by two major banks

The share market is lower as Commonwealth Bank lost value after paying a dividend and ANZ's trading update disappointing investors.
Commonwealth Bank was down about 2.5 per cent after paying its half year dividend to shareholders, which typically results in a fall in share price.
"It's paying out cash to shareholders, so that's taking money out of the market," CommSec market analyst Juliana Roadley said.
ANZ's quarterly update, which showed another rise in cash profit but a fall in the profitability of its lending, was also weighing on investor's minds, she said.
"The result wasn't that bad, but one thing that we have seen from most of the banks that have reported so far is a concern about their net interest margins," Ms Roadley said
"When you look at the weighting of those two large stocks in the banking sector being down, that's pulling the index into the red at the moment."
Commonwealth Bank had dropped $2.67 to $90.97, ANZ was down 81 cents, or 2.3 per cent, at $35.06, while National Australia Bank was up 23 cents at $37.73 and Westpac was 18 cents higher at $37.83.
In the resources sector, Fortescue Metals had gained one cent to $2.69 despite cutting its dividend after an 81 per cent fall in half year profit.


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The Danger of Waiting for a Market Crash Before You Invest

If you, like most investors, like to scoop up bargains in the stock market, you’d probably prefer to wait for the market to crash before investing.
But here’s the thing – that wait for a substantial crash (say a drop of 20% or more), can be harmful to your portfolio at times.
Let’s assume for instance that you were interested in vehicle inspection outfit Vicom Limited (SGX: V01) and supermarket retailer Dairy Farm International Holdings Ltd (SGX: D01) at the start of 2006, when the duo had share prices of S$0.93 and US$3.62 respectively.
If you had a crystal ball back then and foresaw the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-09 and the 67% collapse from peak-to-trough for the Straits Times Index (SGX: ^STI) during the crisis, it’s very likely that you would have held off buying Vicom and Dairy Farm until after the crash had arrived.
But here’s the thing, Vicom had bottomed-out at around S$1.40 per share during the crisis in October 2008 while Dairy Farm did so in December the same year at a share price of US$3.90. Even at their lowest points in one of the worst economic and stock market crashes the world had seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s, both shares had higher prices than at the start of 2006.
The experience of Vicom and Dairy Farm, while admittedly being cherry-picked examples, serves to bring home the point that it does not always make sense to not invest because you’re worried about a crash.

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Analysis - Foreign debt burden at heart of Russian economic worries

Looming debt repayments by Russian companies are now central to discussions of Russia's ability to weather the financial shocks caused by low oil prices and Western sanctions, but the picture is more complex than commonly believed.

MOSCOW: Looming debt repayments by Russian companies are now central to discussions of Russia's ability to weather the financial shocks caused by low oil prices and Western sanctions, but the picture is more complex than commonly believed.
Despite last week's agreement aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, the sanctions are expected to remain for the foreseeable future, perhaps for years if the Ukraine deal fails to lead to a durable peace, leaving Russian companies largely cut off from Western financing.
As long as Western banks refuse to lend, many analysts assume the state will need to help companies repay their US$550 billion in foreign debts. The whole debt burden "has to all intents and purposes been transferred to the national balance sheet", analysts at London consultancy Trusted Sources said in a recent report.
Pessimists therefore worry that even Russia's US$375 billion in central bank foreign exchange reserves will eventually run out. At the very least, sizeable foreign debt repayments add to the strain on the balance of payments, weighing on the rouble.

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Forex Market: EUR/GBP daily trading forecast

Friday’s trade saw EUR/GBP within the range of 0.7388-0.7436. The pair closed at 0.7393, losing 0.26% on a daily basis and extending losses from Thursday.
At 7:38 GMT today EUR/GBP was up 0.01% for the day to trade at 0.7394. The pair touched a daily high at 0.7405 at 2:40 GMT.

Fundamentals

Euro area

Eurogroup Meeting

Finance Ministers of Euro area Member States are to hold another meeting in Brussels today, with its focus being the Greek debt situation. Higher market volatility may be seen after the official decision is announced.
“We’re looking at difficult negotiations on Monday,” Greek Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras, said in a weekend interview with German Stern magazine. “Nevertheless, I’m full of confidence.”
Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said that his country and technical delegations from the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund have already reached an agreement on many issues, the Kathimerini newspaper reported on Saturday. However, there was still uncertainty whether a final agreement will be struck today.

German Buba Monthly Report

At 11:00 GMT Deutsche Bundesbank is to release its Buba Monthly Report, which contains relevant articles, speeches, statistical tables, and provides detailed analysis on current and future economic conditions from the bank’s point of view.

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UPDATE 1-Russian rouble helped by oil, but Ukraine doubts weigh

The Russian rouble rose on Tuesday, supported by a rally in crude prices and political efforts to make a ceasefire hold in eastern Ukraine, but gains were capped by uncertainty about the ceasefire's fate.
At 0800 GMT, the rouble was up 0.4 percent against the dollar to 62.92 and 0.5 percent to 71.45 versus the euro.
Prices for oil, Russia's chief export, extended their rally, with Brent crude climbing beyond $62 a barrel before falling back, still up 0.3 percent on the day to $61.6.
Some investors were also encouraged by more talks between the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France to ensure the ceasefire deal agreed last week holds.
"The rise in the oil price and negotiations about the ceasefire are negating the 'Greek factor'," BCS analyst Mark Bradford said in a morning note, referring to the lack of agreement on Greece's debts on Monday, which is weighing on global markets.
Russian stock indexes were mixed on Tuesday, however, and little changed overall. The dollar-based RTS index was up 0.4 percent to 901 while the rouble-based MICEX was down 0.2 percent to 1,796.
Veles Capital analyst Alexander Kostyukov said in a note that "the geopolitical factor remains the most significant indicator for the Russian stock market on Tuesday".
Despite the continuation of high-level peace talks, the fate of the latest ceasefire in Ukraine is uncertain, with pro-Russian rebels publicly disavowing it around the town of Debaltseve, the focus of recent fighting.

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5.79% Advantage For 5 Russell 2000, Highest Yield, Lowest Price, February Stocks

Summary

• Top ten Russell 2000 stocks by yield showed 5.79% higher net gain from a $5k investment in the five lowest priced than from an equal investment in all ten.
• Annual dividends divided by closing stock prices as of February 13 determined yields. Analyst median targets were used to calculate gains one year hence.
• The five lowest priced highest yield stocks of the Russell 2000 small cap index were: ARR; RSO; NYMT; CYS; WMC.
• The five higher priced stocks of the ten were: HLSS; RESI; MTGE; MITT; AI.
• Consider these stocks as reference points for your February Russell 2000 small cap index stock investment research.

Top Ten For the Money

This article refines and distinguishes an earlier report that revealed Russell 2000 small cap index bargain stocks to buy and hold as long as one year.

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Why households stay away from the stock market

Over the last three years the Indian stock market has seen a near persistent bull run. Between November 23, 2011 and November 28, 2014, the closing value of the Sensex rose by 280 per cent, or an average of more than 90 per cent a year. That signals the kind of yield that the market would have generated even for those who had a portfolio that replicated trends in the 30-stock Sensex.

Interestingly, this was a time when households were cutting back on their financial savings with the ratio of gross financial savings of households to GDP falling from 15.1 per cent in 2009-10 to 10.3 per cent in 2012-13.

That retreat has affected household exposure to stock markets as well, one consequence of which is the extremely poor performance of the primary market and the virtual absence of IPOs from all but the largest of firms. Households in India (as elsewhere) are major contributors to the nation’s savings. Based on the National Accounts series with 2004-05 as base, the share of household savings in gross financial savings of the nation as a whole fell from 72.7 per cent in 2004-05 to 60.9 per cent in 2007-08, then rose to 74.7 per cent in 2009-10 and stood in 2012-13 at 72.7 per cent (the same level recorded in 2004-05). Thus, though volatile, the share of household savings in aggregate savings has mostly remained in the 70 to 75 per cent range.

Not so robust

The National Accounts statistics compute households’ savings as the sum total of household financial savings and the savings of households in physical assets. As direct capital formation estimates from the household sector are not available, the value of household savings in physical assets is computed as a residual, by deducting independently estimated figures of capital formation in the public and private corporate sectors from an estimate of capital formation for the economy as a whole generated through a commodity flow approach.

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Egypt's Juhayna posts 48 pct net profit fall as costs rise

Juhayna Food Industries, one of Egypt's largest dairy product and juice makers, posted a 48 percent fall in full-year net profit on Monday on higher input prices as well as currency rates.
Net profits fell to 170.1 million Egyptian pounds ($22.29 million) from 328.3 million, it said in a statement.
It cited "negative impact on profit margins from a large increase in the prices of raw materials, which have not been fully passed on to the consumer, in addition to the rise in energy prices and currency rates".
Energy prices rose by as much as 78 percent after Egypt slashed energy subsidies in July.
Juhayna also noted that a nationwide shortage of dollars had made it difficult to secure imports.
Sales rose to 3.7 billion pounds from 3.3 billion, it said.

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Strong U.S. Dollar Dampens Earnings

Since mid-July 2014, the U.S. dollar has been on a tear. In that time, the Dollar Index has shot up over 17%.
If you had a European vacation planned for this spring, that’s great news. But the dollar’s charge hasn’t been quite as welcome for many U.S.-based multinational corporations.
Indeed, earnings season has been hard on a number of the market’s biggest companies. Here’s what you need to know going forward…
As the U.S. dollar strengthens, it puts a strain on domestic firms with significant overseas revenue. That’s because, when foreign currencies lose value relative to the dollar, profits translated back into dollars are diminished. Not surprisingly, this can lead to poor revenue comparables and even earnings misses.
And the pain isn’t confined to just one industry, either. Let’s take a look at a few of the areas feeling the headwinds from a strong U.S. dollar…
Area #1: Beverage Companies. Two titans of the beverage industry, PepsiCo (PEP) and Coca-Cola (KO), both admitted to feeling the negative effects of the currency exchange in their recent earnings transcripts.
Coca-Cola reported that fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) faced a 10% currency headwind, while it expects a 5% hit to net revenue and a 7% to 8% blow to profit before tax for full year 2015

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Market breadth turns negative from positive

A bout of volatility was witnessed as key benchmark retained positive zone in early afternoon trade after the latest data showed that the annual rate of inflation based on monthly wholesale price index was in negative zone January 2015. The market breadth indicating the overall health of the market turned negative from positive. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, was currently up 85.23 points or 0.29% at 29,180.16.
Housing finance major HDFC rose after good Q3 results. Pharmaceutical shares were mixed.
Earlier, the Sensex and the 50-unit CNX Nifty had, both, hit their highest levels in almost 2-1/2 weeks in early trade.
Foreign portfolio investors bought shares worth a net Rs 390.26 crore during the previous trading session on Friday, 13 February 2015, as per provisional data released by the stock exchanges. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought shares worth a net Rs 95.82 crore on Friday, 13 February 2015, as per provisional data.
In the foreign exchange market, the rupee edged lower against the dollar.
Brent crude oil futures edged lower after a rally during the previous trading session on Friday, 13 February 2015. Global crude oil prices have bounced back over the past few days after a steep slide in prices over the past few months. The recent rebound in global crude oil prices will raise concerns pertaining to India's fiscal deficit, current account deficit and fuel price inflation. India imports about 80% of its crude oil requirements.

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Crude oil trading outlook: futures gain on OPEC comments, IEA Middle East warning

West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude rose on Tuesday after OPEC officials signaled optimism that the market will sustain its recent rebound, while the IEA warned of supply risks stemming from Islamic State’s rise in the Middle East.
US crude for delivery in April rose $0.22 to $53.89 per barrel by 8:02 GMT from Friday’s close at $53.67. Floor trading was suspended on Monday due to the Presidents’ Day holiday and transactions will be booked today for settlement purposes.
Meanwhile on the ICE, Brent for settlement in the same month traded 0.52% higher at $61.72 a barrel, having shifted between $62.15 and $61.53 during the day. The contract slid 0.20% on Monday to $61.40 a barrel. Brent traded at a premium of $7.83 to its US counterpart, close to Friday’s settlement at $7.85.
Mohammed bin Saleh Al Sada, Qatar’s Energy Minister, said yesterday that the oil market’s trend has changed over the past few weeks and there is a sense of optimism.
Prices rebounded from January’s six-year lows following a continued drop in the number of active US oil rigs. Drillers in the US idled 84 rigs last week, bringing the total count to 1 056, the fewest since August 2011. Their number has fallen by 519, or 33%, over the past ten weeks.
The global supply overhang is smaller than the previously estimated 1.8 million barrels per day, said Ali Al-Omair of Kuwait, OPEC’s third-biggest crude producer.

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Orbex Introduces TradeLab, an Interactive Trade Idea Exchange System

Orbex Ltd continues to offer unique trading tools and resources that focus on enhancing the trading and investment education of its traders. The Forex broker has now introduced the Orbex TradeLab, a trading program whereby traders from all over the world can present and share trading signals and forecasts.
Understanding the value of social media and its impact on Forex trading, the new TradeLab exchange system, which is being offered free of charge, allows traders to follow the industry experts and see how their signals and ideas are performing in real time.
TradeLab provides traders with the opportunity to develop their own trading skills by learning the concept behind each Forex idea and comparing it to other traders.
Education has always been of central importance at Orbex Ltd and last November, the broker launched a new trading blog on its website as well as a Forex library, complete with eBooks, tutorials, videos, webinars and infographics. These services are also offered at no extra cost to the client.

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Commodity firm Noble rejects accounting allegations

One of Asia's biggest commodity-trading firms, Noble, has said that it "completely rejects" allegations made by a research firm over its accounting practices.

A 17-page report by Iceberg Research posted online alleges that Noble "uses accounting loopholes".
The Singapore-listed shares of Noble fell by as much as 10% on Monday.
This caused the stock exchange to send the firm a formal query over the unusual price movement.
Noble said that "save for the report, the company is not aware of any other possible explanation of the trading".
"All material information to which Iceberg Research refers is in the public domain. There has been no material adverse change since the company last reported," Noble said in a statement to the Singapore stock exchange,
"The company reserves its rights against Iceberg Research."
Not much is known about Iceberg Research, which refused to reveal its location or employee size when contacted by the BBC.

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Brent crude extends rally, but analysts warn prices could drop

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Brent crude extended its rally on Tuesday, moving further away from six-year lows hit in January, but some analysts warned that prices had risen too far and could face a downward correction.
Benchmark Brent crude futures were trading up 50 cents at $61.90 a barrel by 0420 GMT (11.20 p.m. EST), while U.S. WTI crude had risen 26 cents to $53.04 a barrel.
"The recent bullishness is not heavily backed by technical and fundamental analysis, and so should not last," said Daniel Ang of Singapore-based Phillip Futures.
"The market is getting increasingly dubious as to this rally, with the CFTC showing that non-commercial net long positions are starting to fall," ANZ bank said in note.
Analysts also said that downward pressure may come from the refined products market in the next quarter.
"Consensus expects large inventory builds and pricing pressure for oil markets in 2015," Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) said on Monday.
Demand for refined oil products has been strong in Asia, which is structurally short, and producers have been taking advantage of low crude prices to cover themselves with fuel and build up product inventories.
With Brent prices outperforming U.S. contracts the spread between the two benchmarks has risen to almost $9 a barrel, the highest level since August last year, and the trend will continue, analysts said.
"Considerable pressure is likely to build on WTI as inventories approach the EIA's 71 million barrel working storage capacity figure and we would therefore expect a wider WTI/Brent spread (low double-digit territory)," said JBC Energy.
In commodities investment, Australia's Macquarie Group Ltd said it was considering acquisitions in futures, physical oil and refined products businesses.
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Greek debt talks with euro zone break down, way forward uncertain

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Talks between Greece and euro zone finance ministers over the country's debt broke down on Monday when Athens rejected a proposal to request a six-month extension of its international bailout as "unacceptable".
The unexpectedly rapid collapse raised doubts about Greece's future in the single currency area after a new leftist-led government vowed to scrap the 240 billion euro bailout, reverse austerity policies and end cooperation with EU/IMF inspectors.
Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who chaired the meeting, said Athens had until Friday to request an extension, otherwise the bailout would expire at the end of the month.
How long Greece can keep itself afloat without international support is uncertain. The European Central Bank will decide on Wednesday whether to maintain emergency lending to Greek banks that are bleeding deposits at an estimated rate of 2 billion euros a week.
"The general feeling in the Eurogroup is still that the best way forward would be for the Greek authorities to seek an extension of the programme," Dijsselbloem told a news conference.
Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis hit back, complaining that Dijsselbloem had refused to discuss a proposal from the executive European Commission that would have given Athens a four-month breathing space in return for the new government holding off on major policy changes.
He sought to play down the setback as a temporary hitch rather than an impasse.
"I have no doubt that within the next 48 hours Europe is going to come together and we shall find the phrasing that is necessary so that we can submit it and move on to do the real work that is necessary," Varoufakis told a news conference.
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Hyundai to enter U.S. commercial vehicle market as part of $1.8 billion offensive

SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korea's Hyundai Motor Co plans to spend around $1.8 billion by 2020 on a major offensive in commercial vehicles, including entering the race in the United States, to catch up with rivals in a rapidly growing global market.
Hyundai, the world's No.5 automaker when paired with sister Kia Motors Corp, has targeted a market it sees growing almost 30 percent in each of the next five years, but where its share ex-China is a paltry 2.1 percent. In 2014, its commercial vehicle sales fell at home, in China and elsewhere.
To expand, Hyundai said it will invest 400 billion won ($363.13 million) to raise production of vans, trucks and buses in Korea by 2020, and that it has earmarked 1.6 trillion won for research and development in such vehicles until the end of the decade.
Hyundai, in a statement on Monday, also said it plans to introduce "premium models in North America and Europe," without providing a time frame or other details.
Hyundai lost share in the overall vehicle market last year in the United States, partly due to having few fuel-guzzling pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles - segments which surged in popularity as oil prices plunged.
The U.S. is Hyundai's second-biggest overseas market after China. To launch commercial vehicles there and challenge established rivals will take considerable time, analysts said.
"Hyundai and Kia need to bolster their weak commercial vehicle business to reach an annual production capacity of 10 million vehicles, from about 8 million currently," said analyst Suh Sung-moon at Korea Investment & Securities.
Hyundai started making its heavy-duty truck Trago Xcient in China last year for the local market, and plans to start building its H350 light commercial vehicles in Turkey in March to enter Western Europe.
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Icy storm paralyzes central U.S., pummels nation's capital

BOSTON (Reuters) - Record-breaking cold gripped the eastern United States while an icy winter storm crippled the nation's central states and then plowed into the mid-Atlantic, dumping snow and forcing federal offices in Washington, D.C. to close on Tuesday.
Heavy snowfall and ice moving eastward from the Southern Plains pounded Missouri, Arkansas, southern Illinois, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana and Ohio, the National Weather Service said.
With the storm headed east and sleet and freezing rain expected to also take a swipe at the South, states of emergency were declared in North Carolina, Virginia, Mississippi, Georgia, Kentucky, as well as in Washington, D.C.
The U.S. Office of Personnel Management announced on its web site that federal offices are closed in D.C. Fort Knox, a U.S. Army post south of Louisville, Kentucky, also will be closed on Tuesday due to weather and road conditions, it said on its website.
Airlines canceled nearly 2,600 U.S. flights, with the hardest hit airports in North Carolina and Tennessee.
Freezing rain encased Tennessee in ice, closing roads, schools and tourist attractions, including the home of the king of rock 'n' roll, Elvis Presley's Graceland mansion in Memphis.
Sleet in Arkansas shut schools and Governor Asa Hutchinson told nearly all government workers to stay home.
Cars skidded off roads near Louisville, Kentucky, where there were six times the usual number of accidents and a fleet of more than 1,000 snow plows tried to clear slick roads, officials said.
"It's been all hands on deck," said Chuck Wolfe, spokesman for the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet.
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Shares in Asia mostly weaker after Greece talks impasse, Shanghai up

Shares in Asia dipped on Tuesday after talks between Greece and its creditors broke down, setting the stage for some volatility ahead of the Chinese New Year holidays that start this week.

Talks between Greece and euro zone finance ministers over the country's debt broke down on Monday when Athens rejected a proposal to request a six-month extension of its international bailout as "unacceptable".

The unexpectedly rapid collapse raised doubts about Greece's future in the single currency area after a new leftist-led government vowed to scrap the 240 billion euro bailout, reverse austerity policies and end cooperation with EU/IMF inspectors.
Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who chaired the meeting, said Athens had until Friday to request an extension, otherwise the bailout would expire at the end of the month.
Greece’s current €240 billion bailout is due to expire on February 28 and the new Greek government does not want it extended, fuelling fears over a conflict with its creditors which could trigger the country’s exit from the euro zone.
Greece's Finance Minister Yiannis Varoufakis said Monday that he was ready to sign a document drafted by the European Commission, which outlined a deal between Greece and its partners.
However, Varoufakis said, Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem presented him with another document, which referred to past policies and was vague in key issues such as "flexibility", which he could not accept.
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Canada's Fairfax to buy insurer Brit Plc for $1.88 billion

Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd, a Canadian property and casualty insurer, said it would buy Brit Plc, a specialty insurer and reinsurer, for about $1.88 billion to gain a significant presence in the Lloyd's of London market.
Brit shareholders will receive 305 pence in cash per share, including any final dividend for the year ended Dec. 31. Fairfax said it expects Brit to pay a final dividend of 25 pence per share for the year ended Dec. 31.
The offer price of 305 pence per share represents a premium of 11.2 percent to Brit's closing price on Feb. 16.
Investor Prem Watsa-led Fairfax said it has received hard irrevocable undertakings to accept the offer from entities managed by Apollo Global and CVC Capital Partners (CVC.UL), which together hold about 73 percent of Brit's issued share capital.
Apollo and CVC, which acquired Netherlands-based Brit in 2010, sold about 25 percent of the company, launching it on the London stock exchange last year and valuing it up to 960 million pounds ($1.48 billion).
Brit underwrites a broad class of commercial specialty insurance with a strong focus on property, casualty and energy business.
"Brit has an outstanding track record over the last ten years and will continue to operate on a decentralized basis once owned by Fairfax," said Fairfax Chief Executive Prem Watsa.
The acquisition is accretive to Fairfax on several metrics, including gross revenue per share and investments per share, the company said in a statement.
Earlier this month, Toronto-based Fairfax Financial Holdings agreed to acquire the Ukrainian insurance operations of Australia's QBE Insurance Group, expanding its presence in Eastern Europe.
($1 = 0.6507 pounds)
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NYMEX crude eases in early Asia as Greece talks reach impasse on bailout

Crude oil prices eassed Tuesday in Asia ahead of U.S. supply data later in the week and as investors eyed talks between Greece and euro zone finance ministers that broke down overnight when Athens rejected a proposal to request a six-month extension of its international bailout as "unacceptable".
The unexpectedly rapid collapse raised doubts about Greece's future in the single currency area after a new leftist-led government vowed to scrap the 240 billion euro bailout, reverse austerity policies and end cooperation with EU/IMF inspectors.

Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who chaired the meeting, said Athens had until Friday to request an extension, otherwise the bailout would expire at the end of the month.
Greece’s current €240 billion bailout is due to expire on February 28 and the new Greek government does not want it extended, fuelling fears over a conflict with its creditors which could trigger the country’s exit from the euro zone.
Greece's Finance Minister Yiannis Varoufakis said Monday that he was ready to sign a document drafted by the European Commission, which outlined a deal between Greece and its partners.

However, Varoufakis said, Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem presented him with another document, which referred to past policies and was vague in key issues such as "flexibility", which he could not accept.
Data normally released Tuesday on U.S. supplies of crude and refined products will be delayed by a day because of a U.S. public holiday on Monday. Related U.S. Department of Energy figures normally released on Wednesday will be issued on Thursday this week.
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